France has deployed two Rafale fighter jets to Greek-Cyprus and a frigate to nearby waters. President Emmanuel Macron’s intent is to deter Turkey from starting a conflict with Greece. It hasn’t garnered much attention in the United States, but the risk of a Greece-Turkey conflict is growing rapidly.
The heart of the problem is President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s deployment of an energy survey vessel and naval escorts into Greece’s exclusive economic zone. In response, Greece has deployed its own navy to the area. Tensions are high and rising quickly. Unconfirmed reports suggest that Turkey has started flying armed drones over the Greek island of Rhodes and that a Turkish naval vessel may have damaged a Greek vessel during a collision on Thursday. Apparently referencing that collision, Erdogan proclaimed, “We said that if you attack our [survey vessel], you will pay a high price, and [the Greeks] got their first answer today.”
Considering Erdogan’s questionable mental state and his use of this crisis to bolster his ultra-nationalist credentials, he is unlikely to back down unless a concerted international effort forces him to do so. Complicating matters here is Erdogan’s relationship with Russia. Vladimir Putin will revel in the prospect of a conflict between these two NATO member states. Especially in that this conflict would occur in the Mediterranean Sea, which Putin hopes to turn into a key zone of his influence.
That makes very important German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s ongoing efforts to mediate a resolution. But this French military activity is also crucial. While Macron has only deployed two fighter jets and one warship, La Fayette, those forces demand the Turkish general staff’s attention. After all, Greece’s navy is inferior to its Turkish counterpart, but the French navy is far superior. And it needs to do so, France could quickly surge reinforcements to the eastern Mediterranean. France’s skilled air force has more than 100 advanced Rafale fighters, and its Mediterranean port at Toulon hosts five nuclear attack submarines and two Horizon-class air defense frigates.
Of course, Macron’s intent here is not to start a fight with Erdogan.
Instead, his focus rests in offering Erdogan a “bad cop” counterpart to Merkel’s “good cop” push for renewed Greek-Turkish diplomacy. The bad cop element is critical in that while Erdogan has said diplomacy is his preference, he risks being caught up in his own nationalist whirlwind. Evincing this concern, Turkish nationalists are increasingly excited on social media, apparently convinced that their showdown with Greece beckons a return to the days of Ottoman glory. Turkish media is much the same. One nationalist columnist summed up the sentiment in a Thursday column, writing, “According to experts, even though limited, Turkey has the instruments capable of striking Athens without risking the life of even one of its soldiers. Therefore, a war between Turkey and Greece is ludicrous in terms of our neighbor.”
Macron’s intent, then, is to suggest that a war between Turkey and France is equally ludicrous, just in the opposite direction. And that Merkel thus deserves Erdogan’s sympathetic ear.
