Since the Yugoslav wars in the 1990s, American leadership has remained crucial for ensuring regional security in the Western Balkans. The recent White House meeting between Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Kosovan Prime Minister Avdullah Hoti demonstrates Washington’s commitment to resolving disputes that retard regional development and that could again flare up into armed conflicts.
Talks between Serbia and Kosovo to “normalize” their relations have continued sporadically since the Brussels Agreement in 2013. While the European Union relaunched negotiations this summer after several years of drift, it is U.S. involvement that ensures real impetus to a final resolution.
The core of the conflict is Belgrade’s stubborn refusal to recognize Kosovo as an independent state. After NATO’s 1999 intervention, led by the U.S. to prevent genocide by the Serbian government of Slobodan Milosevic against the majority Albanian population, Kosovo declared independence in 2008. Its statehood has been recognized by the majority of United Nations members and all but five EU states. But instead of accepting reality and developing productive interstate relations with Kosovo, the Serbian authorities remain stuck in a Yugoslav nostalgia.
The White House summit specified various economic areas where the two countries can intensify their cooperation, but the real significance of the meeting was twofold. First, it reaffirmed that American officials are convinced that only mutual recognition between Serbia and Kosovo as two independent states will normalize relations between them. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo subsequently reaffirmed the U.S. position in a private meeting with Hoti. Serbian officials had been hoping that the Trump administration would soften or even reverse its position on Kosovo’s statehood and objected to the White House text, which restated the importance of mutual recognition.
Second, Washington reiterated its commitment to expanding the number of countries that recognize Kosovo’s statehood. The announcement in the White House that Israel will recognize Kosovo’s independence was a significant breakthrough, especially as Kosovo views itself similarly to Israel as a country created in the wake of genocide to defend the Albanian people. Serbia’s campaign of blocking and de-recognizing Kosovo in Africa, Oceania, and elsewhere has been at odds with U.S. policy, and Belgrade pledged to freeze it at least for a year. Kosovo will also desist from petitioning to join international organizations during the same period to show its good will.
Serbia’s most important supporter in trying to reverse Kosovo’s statehood is Russia. Moscow, together with China, continue to block Kosovo’s membership in the U.N. through their Security Council veto. The Kremlin supports ultranationalist campaigns against Kosovo’s independence throughout the Balkans, spreads disinformation about NATO and the U.S. as the alleged enemies of the Slavic and Orthodox people, and injects its corrupt business interests throughout the region. It is worth remembering that the Albanian population has proved the most resistant to Russian inroads and remains staunchly pro-American.
In future meetings between Serbian and Kosovan leaders sponsored by the White House or State Department, American officials need to focus on how to neutralize the hostile regional influences of both Russia and China in order to build a common pro-Western front. Belgrade’s inadequate resistance to Moscow and Beijing and its willingness to facilitate Russian subversion through energy deals, arms contracts, and propaganda sharing contrasts starkly with the policy of Kosovo, Albania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and other countries in the Balkans.
The EU also has a major role to play in resolving the Serbia-Kosovo standoff, and a new round of talks is planned for September. But it needs to reinforce the principles laid out by Washington that the final status of Kosovo is irreversible and that mutual recognition between Serbia and Kosovo is the only logical solution. Such an achievement would not only normalize political relations but would also boost economic interactions between the two states.
Foreign investors need political certainty for a stable business climate, and all barriers on trade and travel need to be lifted, including Serbia’s acceptance of Kosovo’s passports and other documents. Only a symmetrical relationship between the two states can generate regional stability and economic development, and American leadership must remain focused on this goal.
Janusz Bugajski is a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis in Washington, D.C. His recent book, co-authored with Margarita Assenova, is entitled Eurasian Disunion: Russia’s Vulnerable Flanks.
