During every presidential election cycle, pundits seem to hype the potential for a contested convention that never ends up materializing. But, as we approach 2020, I think the political world is overcompensating for past failures and underplaying the possibility that Democrats could make it to Milwaukee next July without any candidate having reached a majority of delegates.
There are four factors that are coming together in 2020 that make a contested convention more likely than usual.
One, there is a large Democratic field with at least four candidates with enough money and/or support to justify remaining in the race for a long time: Pete Buttigieg, Joe Biden, and Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. There is also enough time for somebody outside this core four to make waves, with Sen. Amy Klobuchar being a prime possibility if she can make a late move in Iowa.
Two, the Democrats have a system in which delegates are awarded on a proportional basis to candidates earning more than 15% statewide or in congressional districts. That means that a candidate who doesn’t win could still stay in the race long enough to mop up enough delegates to deny any one candidate a majority.
Three, the candidates are appealing to different constituencies. While Buttigieg, for instance, polls a lot better among heavily white electorates, Biden is stronger in states with a higher concentration of black voters. Even Warren and Sanders, who are often lumped together, aren’t necessarily drawing from the exact same pool of voters. Sanders has a dedicated enough fan base and enough cash to stay until the end, as he did in 2016.
Four, the majority of delegates will be allocated more quickly than usual. In February, we’ll have the typical first four states: Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. Then, there will be a blitz of delegates decided in March, which has 36 contests, including states and territories. All told, 69% of delegates will be decided by the end of March. As Karl Rove put it, “Unless someone gets huge momentum with big early wins, the race could remain fractured through March, making it mathematically impossible for any candidate to waltz into Milwaukee with a first-ballot majority.”
While, in the past, Democrats would have allowed superdelegates (who can vote for whoever they want) to decide, under new rules, superdelegates would not be able to put any candidate over the top on the first ballot and would only be able to weigh in on the second ballot at the convention. That leaves open a range of possibilities. If one candidate is close, the superdelegates may simply put that person over the top on the second ballot and avoid drama. But once at a convention, anybody could theoretically emerge as the nominee, even a candidate who didn’t run.
Whatever the outcome, though, I don’t think people are paying enough attention to the possibility that Democrats could make it to the convention floor without a presumptive nominee.
