Here’s something to watch for as the returns from the South Carolina Republican primary and the Nevada Democratic caucuses come in Saturday: turnout. There will be plenty of suspense, and quite possibly surprises about who wins and, in South Carolina, comes in second, third and fourth. Polls give us some idea of what to expect, but primary and caucus results can often differ substantially from how people actually vote.
But the polls don’t give much insight about turnout, and in a country roughly evenly divided between two major parties, turnout can make the difference in November.
Turnout so far in the primaries has favored Republicans. More Republicans than Democrats turned out in the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primaries, and Republican turnout in both was significantly higher than in 2012 and 2008. Democratic turnout in both, in contrast, was significantly lower than in 2008. The table below gives the numbers in thousands, with the last three digits omitted. It also shows previous turnout for the contests held Saturday (South Carolina Republican primary, Nevada Democratic caucuses), for next Tuesday (Nevada Republican caucuses), the Saturday after that (South Carolina Democratic primary) and the total national turnout.
| State and Party | 2016 | 2012 | 2008 |
| Iowa Republicans | 186 | 122 | 118 |
| Iowa Democrats | 171 | 227 | |
| New Hampshire Republicans | 283 | 248 | 239 |
| New Hampshire Democrats | 253 | 287 | |
| South Carolina Republicans | 603 | 445 | |
| South Carolina Democrats | 532 | ||
| Nevada Republicans | 33 | 44 | |
| Nevada Democrats | 10 | ||
| U.S. Republicans | 18,908 | 20,828 | |
| U.S. Democrats | 37,415 |
Note that caucus turnout in Nevada has been very low in the past. In 2012 and 2008, about half of Republican caucusgoers were Mormons, who make up about 5 percent of the total state population, and they voted heavily for Mitt Romney, a factor not in play this year. Note also that in 2008, Democratic turnout was higher than Republican turnout in South Carolina primaries, a sign of Republican weakness and Democratic enthusiasm that year, reflected also in the huge Democratic advantage in total turnout. Indeed, Hillary Clinton, who lost, got almost as many votes as all Republicans put together.
That doesn’t seem likely to come anywhere close to happening this year, given the initial Republican turnout advantage in the two November target states of Iowa and New Hampshire. We’ll know more when we have the final turnout figures and can plug numbers in the blank spaces above.
