Lethal Russian and Syrian attacks on Turkish forces in the Idlib governorate, Syria, are pushing the United States and Turkey back together.
The Trump administration senses an opportunity to rebuild the relationship with our NATO ally after years of disagreement over Turkey’s evolving relationship with Russia.
Tweeting on Monday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo expressed “condolences to the families of the soldiers killed in yesterday’s attack in Idlib.”
My condolences to the families of the soldiers killed in yesterday’s attack in Idlib. The ongoing assaults by the Assad regime and Russia must stop. I’ve sent Jim Jeffrey to Ankara to coordinate steps to respond to this destabilizing attack. We stand by our NATO Ally #Turkey.
— Secretary Pompeo (@SecPompeo) February 11, 2020
Arriving in Ankara, Turkey, on Tuesday, Jim Jeffrey, U.S. special representative for Syria, spoke in Turkish to salute the nation’s “martyrs” lost to Russian-Syrian action. Jeffrey’s comments are getting significant play in pro-Erdogan Turkish media.
Takeaway No. 1: Vladimir Putin is playing a very dangerous game here.
The Russian leader assumes that by bombing Turkish forces as he is currently doing, he’ll persuade President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to suspend his reinforcement of Turkish observation posts along the approach roads to the city of Idlib. That matters to the Russians because, with Russian and Iranian support, Bashar Assad’s forces are currently advancing into the Idlib governorate from its eastern and southern edges. The axis believes this long-awaited offensive will allow them to crush the Syrian rebellion once and for all.
However, from Erdogan’s perspective, the Idlib offensive is an overt breach of repeated Russian ceasefire commitments. The Turkish leader is thus both furious over Putin’s betrayal and embarrassed at having been played. And so, while previous Russian attacks on Turkish forces have persuaded Erdogan to back down, the situation has now changed. As I noted last week, Erdogan’s frustration has been growing steadily. He’s learning that there’s no such thing as a Putin partner, there’s only a Putin puppet.
Erdogan also has domestic factors to consider here. The Turkish leader is vulnerable politically and increasingly reliant on his nationalist base for continued support. To accept the killing of Turkish soldiers at axis hands wouldn’t look good.
Near term, Turkish-Syrian escalation is increasingly likely. But considering Turkish anger and the broader tactical context (the U.S. will almost certainly have shared intelligence material with Turkey indicating Russia’s deliberate effort to kill Turkish personnel), Putin may have to back down here. From Putin’s perspective, undermining Erdogan’s relationship with NATO is of critical strategic value.
With Turkey refusing to budge in Idlib, the only other option is to risk an open conflict — one that Russia cannot be confident of winning.
