What House Democrats pass in the next two years of their majority will shape the party’s 2020 message and challenge the Democrats running for the White House to get in line with their legislative program.
With their new majority, House Democrats will take center stage, pushing bills that serve as symbolic messages to the electorate about what the agenda should be. Give them the reins and they’ll pass universal gun background checks, a Medicare buy-in, Medicare for All, a clean Dream Act and more, depending on the size of their majorities.
The leftward shift of the party is evident in the growing ranks of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, whose leaders boasted of their new additions the day after the election and immediately put Democratic leaders on notice. Though the number of centrists increased as well, they’ve stayed relatively quiet as newly elected liberals have ruled the airwaves — tweeting about their legislative wishlists, demanding more seats at the leadership table, and joining climate change and healthcare protests in lieu of regularly scheduled orientation meetings.
It’s not about what can reach President Trump’s desk, though longtime Democratic leader and the likely speaker, current House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., will try to gain concessions from Trump. It’s about the bills Democrats can pass through the House with little to no help from Republicans. How far the House reaches on healthcare or climate change policy could provide the ultimate litmus tests for Democrats competing to take on Trump in 2020.
“There is no body more important to Democrats running in 2020 than the House,” said California Democrat Ro Khanna, a member of the Progressive Caucus. “We could define the agenda of the party. That’s why it’s so important for it to be progressive, so if House Democrats pass something it will force every presidential candidate basically to adopt that position.”
Personally, Khanna wants a Medicare for All measure to be one of the first votes considered by Democrats. But party leaders are setting their sights on a campaign finance package before tackling the more contentious healthcare proposals.
Unlike past presidential cycles where the party anguished over whether to pick a centrist Democrat who may have strayed to the Right on gun control or energy policy, nearly all of the Democrats weighing a run in 2020 are trending to the Left. How they differentiate among themselves could be influenced by their colleagues in the House.
Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., who has long fought for gun control legislation since the 2012 Sandy Hook shooting in his state, is hopeful that a “clean universal background check” bill will pass the House in early 2019.
Some Democratic strategists have expressed concern that Trump’s ability to monopolize the public’s attention with his late-night and early morning twitter tirades could distract from the activity in the House. But freshman Democrats like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York are already commanding blocks of the news cycle by protesting with environmental groups in Minority Leader Pelosi’s office and relentlessly pursuing a select committee to tackle climate change.
Aware of the influence House newcomers like Ocasio-Cortez can wield — a change from past practice where freshmen quietly took their place in line — potential presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., asked Ocasio-Cortez to join a star-studded climate change town hall earlier this week.
“This is going to be the New Deal, the Great Society, the moon shot, the civil-rights movement of our generation,” Ocasio-Cortez said of efforts to combat climate change.
Though some Democrats have bristled at the tactics used by Ocasio-Cortez, others are excited by the opportunity incoming Democrats bring with them. “We need reinforcements,” said Democratic Sen. Brian Schatz of Hawaii, a vocal progressive in the upper chamber.
Ocasio-Cortez has reportedly clashed with some incumbent members over her call for a select committee on a Green New Deal. Senior members argue such policy is more effectively crafted within existing committees. To Schatz the “fights over jurisdiction” in the House are “a sign of robust movement.” And the new progressives present a moment for Democrats to pass politically advantageous bills without having to worry about making them palatable enough for Republicans.
House Democrats have an opportunity, said Schatz, to “lay down a progressive framework that we can all run on.”
But if Democratic candidates for president think they can get away with a short sentence on their websites about climate change, they’ll have to rethink that, according to Schatz. In the weeks since the election, climate change has received prime time treatment from newly-elected lawmakers and possible 2020 front-runners like Sanders.
“Voters in primary states are going to be looking for clarity on climate, leadership on climate, and not just a checking of the box to sort of say, ‘Look, I’m a full-spectrum progressive and I’m for criminal justice reform and climate action and fair taxation and Medicare for all,’” said Schatz. “This is not just another issue on the list.”
Similar to the 1974 class of “Watergate babies” who declared they were in Congress to “take the Bastille,” the Democratic freshmen of 2018 are refusing to wait for their due. Any Democrat hoping to launch a bid for the White House will have to take notice, according to Waleed Shahid, spokesman for the progressive group Justice Democrats.
“People will be watching what some of these freshman do in terms of the presidential race,” said Shahid.
