NFL isn’t out of luck — yet

There have been books, movies, and medical studies on the toll that football takes on players’ bodies. Forty years ago, the movie North Dallas Forty, based on a novel by former Dallas Cowboys receiver Peter Gent, portrayed NFL players’ casual use of narcotics to cope with injuries. In 2017, the NFL agreed to a billion-dollar concussion settlement with former players.

None of that, however, did more to focus attention on the well-being of football players than the startling Aug. 24 announcement that Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck was retiring at age 29. He walked away from a potential Super Bowl team and left several hundred million dollars in salary and endorsements on the table.

Luck’s announcement came just hours after former Baltimore Ravens fullback Le’Ron McClain took to Twitter, pleading for help from lingering head trauma. “My brain is f***ing tired … Dark times and it’s showing,” McClain wrote. Five months earlier, New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski walked away after eight seasons. He later said that a leg injury suffered Feb. 3 in Super Bowl LIII was the final straw.

But it was Luck’s retirement that made people wonder if we were approaching a tipping point, with players starting to question whether the game’s costs outweigh the benefits. McClain tweeted, “Watch how fast they come to aid if I was some QB.” Like Luck, Gronkowski appeared to be at the top of his profession. The Patriots won three championships in the past five seasons, and Gronkowski’s spot in the Pro Football Hall of Fame seemed assured. Unlike Luck, Gronkowski’s retirement was almost joyous, with talk of entertainment projects that suit his raucous personality.

Luck’s retirement was so surprising because his career never seemed to be in a better place. After sitting out the 2017 season, Luck enjoyed his best NFL season in 2018, in part because he was sacked on only 2.7% of pass attempts, best in the NFL. Colts general manager Chris Ballard had overhauled the roster, with an emphasis on building an offensive line that kept Luck upright and healthy. In second-year head coach Frank Reich, Luck seemed to have the perfect mentor, a mild-mannered former NFL quarterback who became a pastor after his playing days and still occasionally preaches in churches around Indianapolis. Reich’s emphasis on quick passes also helped lessen the punishment Luck endured.

The only nagging problem entering the season was an ankle injury that had been dogging Luck since spring, forcing him to miss the team’s mini-camp and all but a few summer practices. The fact that the injury seemed so ordinary made his retirement announcement all the more stunning. But Luck was tired of the “cycle of injury, pain, rehab, injury, pain, rehab … I felt stuck in it, and the only way I see out is to no longer play football.”

While much of the focus has been on Luck’s departure, there’s also been a mini-counter trend. After a year in the broadcast booth, Dallas Cowboys tight end Jason Witten returned to the team this year for his 16th season. All-pro offensive tackle Ryan Kalil retired Dec. 31 after 12 seasons, then returned to the NFL in August. Even Gronkowski recently hinted that he might return. “If I have the desire to play football again, if I feel passionate about football again, if I’m feeling like I need to be out there on the field, I will go back to football,” Gronkowski said.

Football’s hold on popular culture remains as strong as ever. In each of the past two years, the NFL accounted for 40 of the 50 largest televised sports audiences, according to Sports Media Watch. There are, however, some troubling signs at the game’s developmental levels. Nationwide, participation by boys in 11-man football last year declined to its lowest level in 20 years, according to the National Federation of State High School Associations.

That trend is not unique to football. The National Sporting Goods Association has tracked a general decline in team sports participation among the broader 7 to 17 age group. Over the past decade, tackle football participation was down 18%, basketball 22%, and baseball and soccer 15% each.

The National Sporting Goods Association’s Marty Maciaszek said some of the reasons younger children cited for quitting sports were declining interest, lack of time, finances, and an increased dedication to specific sports. But the association found that football participation increased 4% last year, suggesting that more pre-high-schoolers were playing.

While it seems safe to declare Luck the most shocking early retiree in NFL history, it’s too early to say whether his decision is a leading indicator of the game’s decline.

Martin Kaufmann has covered sports for more than two decades, including the past 16 years as senior editor at Golfweek.

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