As Virginia lawmakers prepare for a politically charged fight over redistricting, it doesn’t appear likely that they will create a second black-majority district. The Legislative Black Caucus had called on the state to add a second congressional district with a mostly black population in hopes of electing a second black member of Congress, but experts say it now appears that there isn’t sufficient black population to support two minority-majority districts.

Lawmakers are now focused on the possibility of creating a district that has a large black minority that would at least increase the chances of an African-American being elected, though they conceded that accomplishing that may require reducing the black population in the state’s sole minority-majority district, the 3rd District now held by Rep. Bobby Scott, a Democrat.