THE BUSH CAMPAIGN can lowball with the best of them. George W. Bush has been leading Al Gore by roughly 6 percentage points (when public polls are averaged) for five months now. And by the time they had the confetti swept away in Philadelphia, his lead had grown to double digits. Yet the Bush campaign insists that within two weeks the race will be even, Gore having by then benefited from a 10 point bounce at the Democratic national convention in Los Angeles.
The Bush effort to avoid overconfidence isn’t nonsense, but it is misleading. Bush’s current lead is stable and real. Sure, Gore may soar after his convention. Even Walter Mondale pulled even with President Reagan in one poll after the Democratic convention in 1984. But bounces usually dissipate. Mondale’s did, and so should Gore’s, much of it anyway. By Labor Day, Bush should be back with at least a modest and perhaps a sizable lead. And the good news for Bush is the candidate who leads on Labor Day normally wins in November.
Lowballing aside, virtually all poll results make pleasant reading for Bush. In the tracking (1,000 likely voters each day) of the bipartisan Battleground 2000 poll, Bush gained 10 percentage points during the Republican convention — and that was before his almost universally well-received acceptance speech. Bush leads Gore 52 percent to 35 percent in the head-to-head matchup and 49 percent to 31 percent in a four-way race with Ralph Nader and Pat Buchanan added. An NBC News survey also showed Bush getting a boost from the convention, only not as much. Before, he led 44 percent to 38 percent. After his speech, the lead jumped to 11 points, Bush with 47 percent, Gore with 36 percent. Meanwhile, pollster Frank Luntz conducted focus groups of 36 swing voters during the convention, 35 of whom wound up more favorably inclined toward Bush and seven of whom changed their voting preference from Gore to Bush.
The most compelling polls, however, are those that serve as leading indicators. A Gallup Poll, for example, asked the old horse-race question in a fresh way: Will you vote for or consider voting for Bush or Gore? Sixty-two percent said they backed Bush or would consider it. Only 46 percent said the same of Gore.
Then there’s favorability, which often precedes a widening lead. When public polls on this question are averaged, Bush’s favorability is 62 percent, against 28 percent unfavorability. That’s a 34 point bulge. For Gore, 51 percent see him favorably, 39 percent unfavorably, a 12 point gap. Based on this and all other “things being equal, looking ahead for the next week or two, you see the lead spreading more,” says a Bush aide. If that indeed happens, many polls will probably catch up with the Battleground survey, giving Bush a lead in the high teens. Of course, some of that will vanish as the convention fades, but not all of it.
Bush campaign strategists have a particular subset of the electorate whose voting sentiments they follow obsessively: white men, mostly middle class, 25 to 45 years old, who live outside major metropolitan areas. Again, things look good for Bush among these guys. And his lead of 10 to 12 points is “driving” the polls in key states won by Clinton in 1996: Kentucky, West Virginia, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Missouri. Now, Bush is ahead or even with Gore in all of them.
The question is why. “They don’t feel comfortable with Al Gore,” a Bush strategist says. “It’s the strength factor. They don’t see him as a strong leader. They saw Clinton as a good old boy, even with all the sex scandals. They don’t see Gore that way at all.” This group of male voters constitutes 10 percent or so of the presidential electorate. And if Bush’s lead begins to erode, the Bush campaign will be terrified.
For now, there’s no reason for panic on this or any other poll question. On issue after issue, Bush is doing better than anyone in his orbit expected. Even on cutting taxes, one poll has finally turned up support for Bush’s position: The Wall Street Journal/NBC survey found 42 percent want tax cuts, 32 percent favor paying down the national debt.
The latest national survey by John Zogby found amazing support (72 percent) for private investment accounts using Social Security funds, a Bush proposal. And this poll involved only independent voters. A slim majority (51 percent) wants a missile defense system regardless of whether it violates the ABM treaty — another Bush position.
Zogby says, “There appears to be more than affability working for Bush.” On social issues, there’s been “a slight tilt to the right” — thus in Bush’s direction — among independent voters. On abortion, 12 percent say they now favor tighter restrictions, while 4 percent want fewer restrictions. On guns, 62 percent say they prefer a candidate who would let citizens obtain guns for protection, bar cities and counties from suing gun manufacturers, and promote more criminal prosecution of gun crimes. This describes not only Bush, but also the National Rifle Association.
But the most heartening thing for Bush is what Zogby calls the “one constant” in the presidential race. This is Gore’s inability to rise above 43 percent in the polls. In his acceptance speech in Philadelphia last week, Zogby says, Bush merely had “to read his speech and keep standing. That’s all.” Why? Because voters like Bush at the moment, Zogby says. Gore won’t have the luxury of merely surviving his acceptance speech next week at the Democratic convention in Los Angeles. The only good news for Gore, absent a huge bounce in the polls like Bill Clinton’s record 16-point lead in 1992, is that at least he won’t have to lowball.
Fred Barnes is executive editor of THE WEEKLY STANDARD.
