California Democrats watching the recall election of Gov. Gavin Newsom gain steam say it is a matter of when, not if, the party brings out the big guns to hold on to the governorship.
“I would expect an all-star cast of Democrats from the president on down to be involved before it’s over; it’s too much at stake,” said Steven Maviglio, a longtime political consultant in the state and former press secretary to recalled California Gov. Gray Davis.
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But while Newsom’s campaign started “calling out the cavalry” to rally Democrats, with help from Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and the prospect of a boost from Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, polls show a gap in enthusiasm among voters, and time is running out to close it.
“Republicans are motivated, and Democrats aren’t,” Maviglio said. “The concern right now is it’s August.”
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Democrats, spooked by the recall and a possible Republican win, are raising the alarm that their prospects could start to dwindle if Newsom is ousted.
The campaign’s initial phase involved blocking other Democrats from running against Newsom. “Now, it’s demonizing the Republicans and focusing on turnout,” Maviglio said.
“And it makes a lot of sense for the president himself to do some stumping,” he added. “[Newsom] is the governor of the largest state. He delivers a lot of money to Democratic candidates. And it would be a real blow on the virtual eve of the 2022 elections to have a major upset in California of all places.”
A Republican victory, Maviglio said, would herald “a fundamental shift” in the country’s politics and President Joe Biden’s ambitions.
“There’s consequences if a Republican wins. [Sen. Dianne] Feinstein might have had retirement plans, or there might be a health issue. And then an appointment of a U.S. senator by a Republican governor could tip the balance” in the evenly divided upper chamber of Congress, he said.
“The Newsom campaign, their whole message has been: Don’t let a Trump Republican take over California,” he continued. “If that’s what happens, that’s going to cause headaches from everyone at the top [on] down.”
“The reality is that if the governor is recalled, that’s going to send shock waves through Democrats running for Congress and legislature and governor in other states,” said Paul Mitchell, vice president of Political Data Inc., a firm that provides voter data to campaigns.
Polls have shown a narrowing margin of victory for Newsom as the September vote nears.
About half of likely California voters want Newsom out of office, according to the latest surveys. A RealClearPolitics average shows the campaign to remove Newsom leads by 2 percentage points, while the most recent survey, conducted Aug. 2-4 by Survey USA for the San Diego Union-Tribune, has voters favoring the recall by an 11 percentage point lead, 51% to 40%. In May, the same poll gave voters who opposed the recall an 11 percentage point lead, 47% to 36%.
Newsom faces another challenge: Last week, an Emerson College/Nexstar poll showed Hispanic voters, the state’s largest ethnic voting bloc, in favor of the recall, 54% to 41%.
This “should be something that makes Democrats sit up,” Mitchell said.
White House aides have said little about how Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, a former California senator and state attorney general, plan to boost turnout. One Newsom adviser said discussions were ongoing between the White House and the governor’s team.
Still, Democrats are growing nervous and looking for reassurance that Washington is ready to move into high gear.
“Frankly, Democrats need a kick in the pants in this election because it’s been portrayed as a circus, and the governor should have nothing to worry about for so long,” said Maviglio. “The numbers have changed, and now, it’s getting real. It’s not just an abstract recall.”
Asked whether Biden or Harris would be hitting the campaign trail, Nathan Click, communications director for Newsom’s anti-recall team, obliquely told the Washington Examiner, “Stay tuned!”
Ballots have already gone out in some precincts. “Voting is happening,” said Mitchell of Political Data Inc. “Correct or not … a lot of the public are going to see what happens in this recall, and it’s going to be the only tea leaves people can read.”
But if Newsom holds on to his seat with big numbers, it “could serve to calm a lot of the folks worried about 2022,” Mitchell said. “The impact of this recall as a bellwether has to be recognized by folks in D.C.”
The recall against Newsom has been fueled, in part, by how he has managed the coronavirus pandemic. Frustration over shutdowns and changing guidelines for reopenings amplified when the governor was photographed dining at the French Laundry restaurant in Napa County in a semiopen room at the height of the pandemic. While the outdoor setting followed the letter of the state’s coronavirus rules, it appeared to flout the spirit, for which Newsom later apologized.
In Southern California, radio host Larry Elder, a Trump ally and leading Republican candidate in the race, has launched television advertisements accusing Newsom of acting “like a tyrant,” according to Politico.
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But according to Newsom’s team, Democrats, faced with the prospect of a Trump-aligned leader, are now feeling the urgency.
“Democratic voters are waking up to the fact that if they don’t vote by Sept. 14, a Trump Republican could become governor of California. And just look at who is the leading GOP replacement candidate: Larry Elder — the closest thing we have to Trump in California,” Click said. “In a normal election, this Republican recall wouldn’t have a snowball’s chance in Death Valley. That’s why, across the state and country, you see Democrats are activating against the recall and rallying behind Gov. Newsom.”
