Many political observers were stunned by the new Gallup poll showing the Republican party with a 10-point advantage in the so-called “generic ballot” question. Now we have a better idea how that happened.
According to new, more detailed Gallup numbers, Democratic advantages on issues like health care, the economy, and handling corruption in government have simply disappeared. Democratic leads that were enormous when the party took control of Congress in 2006 have dwindled to nothing or have now become Republican advantages.
The most striking example is in health care. Back in October 2006, just before Democrats won control of Congress, Gallup asked the traditional question, “Do you think the Republicans in Congress or the Democrats in Congress would do a better job dealing with [the following issue]…” At that time, Democrats held a 64 percent to 25 percent lead on health care — a 39 percentage-point advantage. Now, after Democrats passed their long-dreamed-of national health care bill, the result is 44 percent for Democrats versus 43 percent for Republicans — a virtual tie. That is an enormous advantage to have thrown away during four years in power.
The news is just as bad for Democrats on the economy. In October 2006, Democrats held a 53 to 37 lead over Republicans on the issue. Now, after Democrats passed an $862 billion stimulus bill and touted 2010 as the “summer of recovery,” Republicans hold a 49 to 38 lead. Democrats have gone from having a 16 point lead to being 11 points behind.
Then there is the question of dealing with corruption in government. Back in ’06, a large majority — 51 percent to 28 percent — trusted Democrats more than Republicans to deal with the issue. Now, with Democrats facing high-profile ethics proceedings in Congress, Republicans hold a 38 to 35 lead.
Back in 2006, things had gotten so bad for Republicans that Democrats took the lead even in a traditionally Republican area: protecting the country against terrorism. Just before the ’06 elections, Democrats held a 47 to 42 lead on protecting against terrorism. Now, after Ft. Hood, Detroit, and the Times Square bombing attempt, Republicans hold a 55 to 31 lead.
The only issue on which Democrats hold the lead today is the environment.
So look at the swings away from the Democratic party: a 38-point swing on health care, a 27-point swing on the economy, a 26-point swing on handling corruption in government, a 29-point swing on combating terrorism. All the progress Democrats had made on those issues during the Bush years has gone away. Is it any wonder Democratic strategists are approaching this November’s elections in a state of panic?
