Crime is still a looming problem as the midterm elections approach, and New York is not immune to safety concerns.
A Siena College poll has a majority of registered voters, 52%, claiming the state is on the wrong track, and only 36% saying it is on the right track. If New York Gov. Kathy Hochul wins the Democratic nomination, 40% plan on voting for her, while 45% would prefer someone else. Hochul gets low grades on COVID-19, the economy, and leadership, but it’s crime that stands out the most.
Hochul’s handling of crime is rated as fair or poor by 69%, with just 24% rating it as excellent or good. She gets failing grades from Democrats (58%), independents (74%), and black voters (70%). While it’s unlikely that voters would actually give Hochul the boot in the general election (it’s easy to prefer another candidate when you don’t know who it will be), crime is clearly on the minds of New Yorkers, and it isn’t hard to see why.
When asked if New York eliminating monetary bail for people facing misdemeanors and nonviolent felonies was good or bad for the state, 54% of voters decided it was bad. When asked if the bail law resulted in an increase in crime, voters said it did by a 30-point margin, with even Democrats agreeing. Voters support giving judges more discretion in gun cases, allowing judges to consider if defendants violated orders of protection and making it easier for the police to arrest people with multiple appearance tickets.
Across every region, racial group, political preference, age, religion, and income group polled, crime is the top issue that voters are considering in November. Crime has been a hot topic in New York City in particular, with a spike in homicides continuing from 2020 into 2021, while rapes, robberies, and assaults were all up over the first three months of this year.
Letting repeat offenders roam free never had to be a part of widely touted liberal criminal justice reform. But New York Democrats made an ideological commitment to it. Hochul will likely avoid electoral consequences for these decisions, but her low numbers are a warning sign for other Democrats running in local contests. Voters are ready to get serious about crime once again, and their politicians can choose to do the same, or they can search for a new line of work.
