Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Thursday that the Baghdad command is bracing for stepped-up attacks by insurgents this summer to influence the first report card on the progress of the new U.S. “surge” strategy.
“I think we should be prepared for them to make a very strong effort to increase the level of violence in July and August,” Gates said at a Pentagon news conference. “My hope is that anticipating it will allow us to thwart it.”
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Army Gen. David Petraeus, the top commander in Iraq, set September as the date to report to President Bush on the results of the troop surge begun in mid-February to quell out-of-control violence in Baghdad and al Anbar province.
Al Qaeda terrorists, Iraqi insurgents and radical Shiite leaders all want to drive out the 147,000 U.S. troops now in Iraq. Increased Iraqi and American deaths, the enemy figures, may force Petraeus to give the surge a failing grade. This may add to the push in Washington by Democrats for an immediate pullout.
“From an enemy standpoint, attacking as best they can in July and August would make sense from their standpoint,” said Gen. Peter Pace, Joint Chiefs chairman, who appeared with Gates.
Pace reported one statistic showing that the deployment of nearly 20,000 more soldiers and Marines is having an impact. In January, he said, terrorist attacks and sectarian violence caused 1,400 murders in the capital. That number dropped to 800 in February, 500 in March and 500 in April. May is on course for a slight increase, he said.
“We can’t turn it around overnight,” Gates said. “And we just have to have the patience to let this play out and see if Gen. Petraeus’ strategy is going to produce positive results. We think there are some positive things going on. I think we’re being very careful not to indulge in happy talk or to be optimistic when there are grounds not to be.”
Petraeus says al Qaeda and its corps of suicide bombers are Iraq’s No. 1 enemy.
“This situation would look very different if it weren’t for al Qaeda,” Gates said.
