It’s early in a long night. But as of 9:50 p.m. ET, Joe Biden’s campaign team must be thinking its candidate has a good chance of storming out of Super Tuesday with a convincing lead as the Democratic front-runner.
One thing is for sure. Biden is definitely back.
He’s already projected to win impressive victories in Alabama, North Carolina, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Virginia. In Virginia, turnout is nearly double what it was in the 2016 Democratic primary. Biden is earning delegates even in Bernie Sanders’s socialist citadel home state of Vermont, and Biden has a fighting chance of winning Elizabeth Warren’s home state of Massachusetts.
Three factors stand out so far.
First, as my Washington Examiner colleague Tiana Lowe observes, Biden appears to have regained his momentum dramatically in the aftermath of his South Carolina primary victory last weekend. The endorsements of Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar also appear to have persuaded a large swath of their supporters to get behind the former vice president. He is clearly and unquestionably now the candidate of the Democratic establishment and moderate voters. It is striking that even in Colorado, where Sanders has secured victory, Biden will secure delegates.
Second, Sanders isn’t replicating his early trailblazer victories in the primary fight. While Sanders is showing good early results in Texas, Biden also looks strong in that 261-delegate state. As my colleague Madeline Fry notes, it’s likely Sanders’s problem here is the apparent failure of many young voters, who tend to be more favorable towards Sanders, to turn out and vote.
Third, Warren and Michael Bloomberg are struggling big time. In Warren’s case, the concern is especially significant. Warren is not likely to win her home state of Massachusetts and may even come in third. Polls gave her a tight edge, but she was expected to win.
So, where does all this leave us?
It’s still early. But beyond that, the Cook Political Report‘s excellent Dave Wasserman encapsulates things.
If Biden can win TX and keep CA within single digits, he’ll likely exit Super Tuesday with a delegate lead that’s close to insurmountable.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) March 4, 2020
An extension here is that if Biden keeps up this storming surprise as more results come in, Bloomberg will face pressure to drop out and endorse him.
It’s unsurprising, then, that NBC News is reporting that Bloomberg will reassess his campaign on Wednesday. Bloomberg’s route to the Democratic nomination has always rested on the assumption that he could somehow secure a contested convention as the most viable centrist candidate against Sanders. While Bloomberg is picking up some delegates on Super Tuesday, he’s far from flourishing. In the context of Bloomberg’s less-than-obvious charisma and the antipathy with which many Democrats view his billionaire big-spending ways, he needed to show something special on Super Tuesday. And he hasn’t done so.
The situation is similar for Warren. Yet the challenge for the Sanders campaign is that it is not at all clear that Warren would throw her support and political identity behind the socialist firebrand.
As I say, it’s early. But at this point, we are heading into Wednesday with the expectation that this is about to become a two-horse race between Biden and Sanders. Biden could wake up Wednesday morning in a surprisingly commanding position.
