“Chaos,” “meltdown,” and “betrayal” were just some of the headlines used to describe events in Parliament last week, but there were no surprises. In the three big votes, Prime Minister Theresa May’s deal for leaving the European Union lost again. MPs then rejected the no-deal exit, and the prime minister now gets to ask the EU if Britain can stay in for longer.
The only apparent boost for “Leavers” was President Trump’s intervention to say that a second referendum would be unfair on U.K. voters who won it the first time around.
Although none of the motions passed were legally binding, the last one was the most significant, as the conservative government voted to change the leave date in the EU Withdrawal Act. This despite repeated promises made by May that it would not be altered.
She will now present her deal for a third time this week confident that, with the no-deal exit apparently blocked, it is the only Brexit choice left for “Leavers.” Turning a 230-vote defeat into a win would be an enormous parliamentary reversal, but she is not there yet.
The delay motion only passed with support from the opposition parties, as more Conservatives voted against it (188) than for it (112). That’s a huge number of upset colleagues to try to win back. It also denotes a massive change in how Parliament operates.
Significantly, out of the 413 MPs who voted for the delay motion, 301 were from the opposition parties. In the past, with so many of her own MPs voting against her, even in a free vote as this was, they would have followed suit just to try to eventually force a general election over her inability to command a majority in Parliament.
The change is due to The Fixed-term Parliaments Act, or FTPA, brought in by David Cameron in 2011 that sets a five-year period between elections. Often overlooked amongst his other radical policies, this law has altered the whole nature of government in Britain.
It was enacted as a condition set by his unlikely coalition partners, the left-of-center Liberal Democrats, so that he would not easily be able to dump them mid-term. It also helped him pursue a radical agenda of socially progressive polices.
For a government to fall now, it requires a no-confidence vote supported by two thirds of MPs, which is very difficult to achieve. This has enabled May’s stubborn Brexit strategy to stumble on, losing numerous votes along the way, until she gets what she wants.
During the second unsuccessful vote on May’s deal, Attorney General Geoffrey Cox admitted the EU’s single market could separate Northern Ireland from the rest of the U.K. He has since found an obscure ruling in the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties to try to prove that Britain will be able to resist EU control if there is a “fundamental change of circumstances.” Will that convince enough MPs to get it passed?
The delay voted on by Parliament requires all of the 27 EU nations to agree to grant that extension and Parliament still has to pass legislation to amend the current Withdrawal Act. Both of these could prove problematic.
MPs know they are ultimately accountable to their constituents and a great many of those prefer the no-deal option. This is especially so now that the government has finally revealed that 82 percent of imports from the EU would remain tariff-free, and 92 percent of imports from the rest of the world would also become tariff-free, up from the current 56 percent.
If politicians are looking for a sign from the people to give them confidence, Nigel Farage has organised a “March to Leave” protest from Sunderland, where the first pro-Brexit result was announced in the 2016 referendum. Now underway, the 270-mile trek is due to reach Westminster on the March 29 exit date.
Whether those marchers will feel they have arrived at a celebration, or a funeral will depend on what happens in Parliament over the next two weeks. This is an historic, pivotal moment for the House of Commons. For Brexit to work out, MPs will need the courage of their convictions to stand up for the people who put them there.
Andrew Davies is a U.K. based video producer and script writer.
