Pacific commander warns China could move to take Taiwan in the next five years if US doesn’t increase deterrence

“The period between now and 2026, this decade, is the time horizon in which China is positioned to achieve overmatch in its capability, and when Beijing could, could likely choose to forcibly change the status quo in the region. And I would say the change in that status quo could be permanent,” said Davidson, speaking from his headquarters in Hawaii, making a point not to mention Taiwan by name. “Make no mistake about it, China seeks a new world order.”

A $27 BILLION SHOPPING LIST: Davidson submitted to Congress his commander’s assessment of what military assets are needed to ensure a credible deterrent to China, a report required by the 2021 National Defense Authorization Act, as part of the Pacific Deterrence Initiative, which has already allocated $6.8 billion for this fiscal year and next to shoring up capabilities in the region.

Davidson’s list totals $27.3 billion over five years and is topped by $1.6 billion for Lockheed Martin’s Aegis Ashore system to provide a 360-degree air defense capability on Guam, which his report notes is the “most crucial operating location in the western Pacific.”

“Funding for the air and missile defense of Guam is my number one priority, most importantly, because Guam is U.S. homeland,” said Davidson. “There are 170,000 Americans living in Guam, and their defense is homeland defense.”

“The Guam defense system will allow us to regain the advantage, help us deter China, and it will demonstrate our steadfast commitment to allies and partners in the region that we are here to stay, and to defend what is ours. And to understand that that defense of that critical node is to help to facilitate the defense of our allies and interest abroad,” he said. “Ultimately the steps we take in establishing an effective deterrent posture must convince Beijing unequivocally the cost of achieving their objectives by the use of military force are simply too high.”

TIME TO UPDATE ‘STRATEGIC AMBIGUITY?’ Unlike Korea, where the U.S. is bound by treaty to defend the South in the event of an attack, the U.S supports Taiwan by supplying defensive weapons while pursuing a delicately calibrated policy of “strategic ambiguity” designed to keep Chinese President Xi Jinping guessing whether the U.S. military and its allies would come to Taiwan’s defense if China were to launch a cross-strait invasion.

“Xi’s strategy now is clear: to vastly increase the level of military power that China can exert in the Taiwan Strait, to the extent that the United States would become unwilling to fight a battle that Washington itself judged it would probably lose,” wrote former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd in an essay in Foreign Policy. “Without U.S. backing, Xi believes, Taiwan would either capitulate or fight on its own and lose.”

Robert Gates, who was the defense secretary to former Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama, is among a growing number of national security experts who believe it may be time to replace that nebulous policy with something resembling “strategic clarity.”

“Given where President Xi is headed … we ought to think seriously about whether it’s time to abandon our longtime strategy of strategic ambiguity toward Taiwan and basically tell the Chinese that if unprovoked, they take actions against Taiwan, the United States will be there to support Taiwan,” Gates said in an interview with the Washington Post. “I think this is a really dicey situation.”

MORE IN THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER: IS WAR WITH CHINA JUST A MATTER OF TIME?

AUSTIN’S MESSAGE TO THE FORCE: In a message to all the men and women of the Defense Department, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin outlined his top priorities and areas of focus, and he listed China right after defeating COVID-19.

“The Department will prioritize China as our number one pacing challenge and develop the right operational concepts, capabilities, and plans to bolster deterrence and maintain our competitive advantage,” Austin said in a memo issued yesterday. “We will ensure that our approach toward China is coordinated and synchronized across the enterprise to advance our priorities, integrated into domestic and foreign policy in a whole-of-government strategy, strengthened by our alliances and partnerships, and supported on a bipartisan basis in Congress.”

Good Friday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Victor I. Nava. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.

CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP OR READ BACK ISSUES OF DAILY ON DEFENSE

Subscribe today to the Washington Examiner magazine and get Washington Briefing: politics and policy stories that will keep you up to date with what’s going on in Washington. SUBSCRIBE NOW: Just $1.00 an issue!

HAPPENING TODAY: House Armed Services Committee Chairman Rep. Adam Smith will take part in a Brookings Institution webcast conversation with Michael O’Hanlon, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.

Along with the usual topics, including Afghanistan, China, Iran, Iraq, and North Korea, Smith may be asked about a call from Republican leaders on his committee, led by Alabama’s Mike Rogers, the ranking member, to increase defense spending by 3% to 5% over this year’s $740 billion budget, after adjusting for inflation.

In a letter to President Biden, the eight GOP members write: “The bipartisan National Defense Strategy Commission recommended an annual 3% to 5% increase above the rate of inflation in the base defense budget to ‘meet the ends the NDS establishes.’ Accordingly, we believe an increase of 3% to 5% above inflation in the base defense budget is a prudent amount that will enable the military to stay ahead of evolving threats from our adversaries.”

And of course, they cited the threat from China’s growing military might: “The Chinese Communist Party increased its defense spending by over 75% in the last decade. As a result, the Chinese military has gone from an obsolete force barely able to defend its borders to a modern fighting force capable of winning regional conflicts.”

NATIONAL GUARD MISSION CREEP: And Smith may have to weigh in on the issue of the day, which is the request by the acting Chief of the U.S. Capitol Police Yogananda Pittman to keep hundreds of National Guard troops guarding the Capitol for another two months.

Pittman has written a letter to congressional leaders appealing to them to convince the board that oversees her department to support her request to the Pentagon to extend the support of Guard troops beyond March 12, according to a copy of the letter obtained by the Associated Press. The Capitol Police Board is composed of the House and Senate sergeants at arms and the architect of the Capitol.

In the letter, Pittman says the board has given her a list of actions it wants implemented, including “a partial removal of the imposing fence encircling the Capitol grounds starting Monday and a drawdown of the Guard to 900 troops from the current 5,200 remaining in Washington,” the Associated Press reported

“The issue about the National Guard is one that will be made by the Capitol Police and the Police Board and the rest. But I’m not in a position to respond to that,” said House Speaker Nancy Pelosi when asked about the request. “We should have them here as long as they are needed.”

Later, she added that with “the threat all the president’s men out there, we have to ensure, with our security, that we are safe enough to do our job.”

Yesterday, a defense official told the Washington Examiner, “We have indeed received a request, and DOD is currently considering the request,” without confirming earlier reports that Pittman requested up to 2,200 Guardsmen remain at the Capitol another 60 days.

OUTRAGE! To say the request is not sitting well with Republican lawmakers would be to risk serious understatement.

“I’m outraged that U.S. Capitol Police have requested to keep the nearly 5,000 National Guardsmen at the Capitol Complex for another two months without presenting clear and specific information,” said Sen. Jim Inhofe, ranking member on the Senate Armed Services Committee. “I haven’t been satisfied with any explanation Congress has received at numerous briefings that all these personnel, resources, and barbed wire are needed.”

“What’s more,” Inhofe says, “They haven’t provided the Department of Defense with any of the information needed to justify this request.”

“Speaker Pelosi continues to play politics behind closed doors regarding our security on Capitol Hill, and lawmakers have been left in the dark for too long,” said Florida’s Michael Waltz. “If more security is needed, it should be by our Capitol Police with better planning and intelligence, not drawing from National Guardsmen and women that are needed for other missions, such as vaccine distribution, natural disaster, and overseas deployments.”

“This is not their job or their mission,” added Inhofe. “I look forward to working with law enforcement agencies and my colleagues to improve Capitol security and get our Guardsmen back home to their families.”

NATIONAL GUARD SURPRISED BY EXTENSION REQUEST AND FIND NO QANON-INSPIRED PROTESTERS

RAKING KAHL OVER THE COALS: At his Senate Armed Services Committee confirmation hearing yesterday to be undersecretary of defense for policy, the No. 3 job at the Pentagon, Colin Kahl got a bit of the roughing up from both Inhofe and Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas.

Inhofe was miffed that someone leaked and mischaracterized a private phone conversation he had with Kahl and delivered a long lecture to the nominee. “Apparently someone who was listening went to the press and claimed that you and I, and they were quoting you, said quote, ‘Said all the right things and may have flipped Inhofe in his concerns.’”

“First, I think it’s pretty clear that we had significant disagreements, so I’m not sure how you got that impression or he got that impression or who it was. And second, and most importantly, I’m disappointed a slanted view of our conversation was shared with the press. There’s no reason for that.”

Both Inhofe and Cotton excoriated Kahl for his inflammatory tweets over the last several years, along with his record of faulty predictions when it comes to foreign policy.

“You said that the Iran deal might lead to war, and that didn’t happen,” said Inhofe. “You said the Soleimani strike would force the United States out of Iraq. That didn’t happen. You wrote that it would be difficult to prevent a massive war on the Korean Peninsula in 2018. That didn’t happen. You said that moving the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem would harm relationships to Arab states, and in fact, Arab-Israeli relations have never been better.”

“Dr. Kahl, it seems to me that your judgments about matters of war and peace are almost always wrong,” later added Cotton, who then went on to scold Kahl about his tweets attacking Republicans. “This is not about mean tweets or insulting senators. We’re all used to harsh criticism up here. This is just a very small sample of the many intemperate and unbalanced remarks that you’ve directed at people who disagree with you about public policy.”

Having been roundly chastised, Kahl was contrite. “To state the obvious, the last few years have been pretty polarizing on social media. I’m sure there are times that I got swept up in that. There were a number of positions that President Trump took that I strongly opposed. I think the language that I used in opposing those was sometimes disrespectful, and for that, I apologize,” he told Cotton. “I understand that the position of the undersecretary of defense for policy while it’s a political appointment is not a political job. It’s a policy job. One that requires me to be nonpartisan in the halls of the Pentagon and bipartisan working with this committee and others in Congress.”

MY DESERT STORM, BY H.R. McMASTER

GOP OPPOSE BIDEN’S LIMIT ON DRONE STRIKES: Following reports in the New York Times and the Washington Post that the administration quietly imposed temporary limits on drone strikes targeting suspected terrorists outside of Afghanistan, Syria, and Iraq last month, Republicans are crying foul.

“This action is yet another bureaucratic impediment created by the Biden Administration that will give our enemies an advantage over the United States and our allies,” said Rep. Mike Rogers, ranking member of House Armed Services Committee; and Rep. Michael McCaul, ranking member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee.

“Terrorists do not respect borders or battlefields, and raids and drone strikes are essential tools for removing the threats that they pose to Americans and our national security,” the two GOP lawmakers said in a joint statement. “Taking away the discretion of commanders on the ground to strike lawfully targeted terrorists will result in a more dangerous world. While our operators wait for approval from Washington, terrorists will escape to plot and fight against the United States and our allies for another day.”

THE OTHER SIDE’S NOT HAPPY EITHER: The American Civil Liberties Union is objecting to the temporary drone ban but for the opposite reason, arguing it doesn’t go far enough.

“President Biden promised to end forever wars, but tinkering with the bureaucracy of this extrajudicial killing program will only entrench American abuses,” said Hina Shamsi, the director of the ACLU’s National Security Project. “In the name of counterterrorism, U.S. presidents have for two decades authorized unlawful, secretive, and unaccountable killing abroad. This lethal program violates domestic and international law and has caused years of devastating harm to people in the majority-Muslim countries on the receiving end of American power. It must end.”

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: Is war with China just a matter of time?

Washington Examiner: National Guard surprised by extension request and find no QAnon-inspired protesters

Washington Examiner: Pentagon confirms request for extension of National Guard mission at Capitol

Washington Examiner: Michael Flynn’s brother warned about ‘optics’ of sending uniformed troop response to Capitol siege, DC Guard chief says

Washington Examiner: Former Trump Pentagon chief Mark Esper joins McCain Institute

Washington Examiner: Iran uses Biden’s hope for talks to avoid nuclear rebuke

Washington Examiner: Children released at border at risk of human trafficking, top Republican warns Biden

Washington Examiner: H.R. McMaster: My Desert Storm

Washington Times: COVID-19, China Are Top Priorities For Defense Secretary

Nikkei Asia: Biden Vows To Defend Allies From China In Security Guidance

USNI News: Davidson: Aegis Ashore on Guam Would ‘Free Up’ 3 Navy Destroyers

Reuters: China Says Will Deter Taiwan Independence But Seek Peaceful Ties

The New Yorker: Talking threats, foreign and domestic, with Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

Wall Street Journal: U.S. Canceled Second Strike Inside Syria

New York Times: Passed Over 3 Times, a Black Marine Colonel Is Being Promoted to General

Time: ‘They’re Fighting Blind.’ Inside The Biden Administration’s Uphill Battle Against Far-Right Extremism

Bloomberg: Biden’s New Helicopter Still Risks Scorching White House Lawn

Air Force Magazine: Stars and Stripes: Troops Weigh In on New Space Force Insignia

CNBC: Fauci Says Military Members Who Opt Out Of Covid Vaccine Are Inadvertently ‘Part Of The Problem’

Military Times: COVID Shots May Be Widely Available To Military Families In April

Military.com: Marine Corps Gets Rid Of Male-Only Underwear Allowance After Review

19fortyfive.com: The British Army Is Shrinking: Smallest In 400 Years

19fortyfive.com: F-35 Stealth Fighter: The Weapon South Korea Truly Needs

Forbes: 10 Reasons Nearly Nothing Can Stop The F-35 Stealth Fighter

Washington Examiner: Opinion: Stop talking about war powers and do it already

Calendar

FRIDAY | MARCH 5

10 a.m. — International Institute for Strategic Studies webinar: “Can Europe Defend Itself?” with Barry Posen, political science professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Bastian Giegerich, director of defense and military analysis at IISS; Francois Heisbourg, senior adviser for Europe at IISS; and Dana Allin, senior fellow for U.S. foreign policy and transatlantic affairs at IISS. https://www.iiss.org/events

11 a.m. — Brookings Institution webcast conversation with House Armed Services Committee Chairman Rep. Adam Smith, D-Wash., moderated by Michael O’Hanlon, senior fellow and co-director, Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology, Brookings. https://www.brookings.edu/events

12 p.m. — Hudson Institute webinar: “Competing with China Through Budget Agility,” with Air Force Deputy Chief of Staff for Strategy, Integration and Requirements Lt. Gen. S. Clinton Hinote; Michael Brown, director of the Defense Department’s Defense Innovation Unit; former Defense Deputy Undersecretary for Industrial Policy Bill Greenwalt, visiting fellow at the American Enterprise Institute; former Defense Department Comptroller Elaine McCusker, resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute; and Dan Patt, adjunct fellow at the Hudson Center for Defense Concepts and Technology. https://www.hudson.org/events

1:50 p.m. — Jackson Institute for Global Affairs at Yale University Special Operations Forces Conference: “Artificial Intelligence and Big Data and its impact on SOF, Defence, and Great Power Competition, “ with Snehal Antani, chief technology officer within the U.S. Special Operations Command; Lt. Gen. Michael Groen, director of the Joint Artificial Intelligence Center; Chris Lynch, CEO of Rebellion Defense; and Charles Forte, chief information officer for the United Kingdom Ministry of Defence. https://yaleconnect.yale.edu/jacksonsofcon/home

3 p.m. — Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute virtual event: “Assessing the State of Our National Defense,” with former Secretaries of Defense Mark Esper and Leon Panetta, and former national security adviser retired Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster. https://www.reaganfoundation.org

WEDNESDAY | MARCH 10

11 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee hearing: “National Security Challenges and U.S. Military Activities in the Indo-Pacific,” with David Helvey, acting assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific affairs; Adm. Philip Davidson, commander, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command; and Gen. Robert Abrams, commander, United Nations Command, Combined Forces Command, and U.S. Forces Korea.

12 p.m. — Association of the U.S. Army “Noon Report” webinar with Lt. Gen. Laura Potter, deputy chief of staff for intelligence. https://info.ausa.org/e/784783/Noon-Report

3 p.m. — Heritage Foundation virtual event: “Lessons from the West Capella Incident: Successful Naval Presence in the South China Sea,” with David Stilwell, former assistant secretary of state for east asian and pacific affairs; and Brent Sadler, Brent Sadler, senior fellow for naval warfare and advanced technology, Heritage. https://www.heritage.org/asia/event

4:45 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Subcommittees on Readiness and Military Personnel Joint hearing: “Privatized Military Family Housing: Update on Implementation of Housing Reforms,” with Rick Taylor, president, facilities, operation and construction, Balfour Beatty Communities; Carolyn Tregarthen, managing director, Lendlease Americas; retired Army Maj. Gen. Al Aycock, Military Partnership Executive, Corvias Group LLC. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings

THURSDAY | MARCH 11

11 a.m. — National Taxpayers Union and R Street Zoom webinar: “Pentagon Purse Strings Episode 3: An Interview with Lisa Hershman, former Chief Management Officer of the Pentagon,” with Jonathan Bydlak, R Street Institute; Andrew Lautz, National Taxpayers Union; Mark Cancian, senior adviser with the CSIS International Security Program. https://rstreet-org.zoom.us/webinar/register

11:30 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies virtual Aerospace Nation event: “Nuclear Deterrence and Missile Defense Forum,” with Mark Schneider, senior analyst with the National Institute for Public Policy; and Stephen Blank, senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. https://www.mitchellaerospacepower.org

3:30 p.m. — George Washington University Project for Media and National Security Defense Writers Group conference call conversation with Gen. James McConville, chief of staff of the Army. https://nationalsecuritymedia.gwu.edu/events

4 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Military Personnel hearing: “Military Criminal Investigative Organization Reform Recommendations from the Fort Hood Independent Review Committee,” with Christopher Swecker, chairman, Fort Hood Independent Review Committee; Carrie Ricci, member, Fort Hood Independent Review Committee; Andrew Bland, former FBI special agent in charge, consultant for the Fort Hood Independent Review Committee; and Mary Counts, Former FBI supervisory special agent, consultant for the Fort Hood Independent Review Committee. A second panel will include Maj. Gen. Donna Martin, provost marshal general and commanding general, U.S. Army Criminal Investigation Command; Brig Gen. Terry Bullard, commander, Air Force Office of Special Investigations; and Omar Lopez, director, Naval Criminal Investigative Service. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings