Rejecting the concerns of its neighbors, the Solomon Islands on Thursday signed a major security accord with China. It denies that China will be able to establish a military base on its territory. But the accord appears to allow for military police deployments from the People’s Liberation Army and possible naval access.
The Solomon Islands has thus opened itself to U.S. and Australian economic and military action in the event of a war with China. Geography explains why (the map below is from Google Maps with my annotations).
Less than 1,000 miles from Australia’s Northern Territory, the Solomon Islands are also located south of Guam and U.S. Navy lines of communication from the Indo-Pacific Command in Hawaii. The islands, therefore, allow the PLA-Navy and Air Force a launchpad from which to gather intelligence against U.S. and Australian forces. The islands would also allow for China’s forward conduct of cyber, satellite, and electronic warfare against U.S. and Australian forces.
Again, while the Solomon Islands insists no PLA bases will be established, this need not preclude road-mobile PLA systems such as its advanced anti-stealth JY-26 radar. At the threat apex, the PLA might also attempt to deploy long-range strike systems such as its DF-26 ballistic missile. That would put the DF-26 well within the range of Guam and U.S. Marine Corps forces in northern Australia. It would also allow for the PLA’s targeting of U.S. carrier strike groups as they transit the Pacific Ocean. Considering the Chinese Communist Party’s highly flexible relationship with the truth, the Solomon Islands cannot receive Beijing’s commitments with confidence.
The United States and Australia have both the moral right and strategic responsibility to put the Solomon Islands on notice. Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare has the sovereign authority to make deals that he believes serve his national interests. It’s certainly true that China’s significant economic investment in the Solomon Islands inclines its leaders to favorable relations. But so also do the U.S. and Australia have the right to defend their critical interests against the primary global threat to those interests — China.
Sogavare must weigh the risks and rewards of each individual Chinese arrival on his territory carefully. If he makes the wrong choice, the consequences for his nation and its people may be dire.
