It was a drama-filled day in Britain’s House of Commons on Tuesday. But the outcome seems clear: A snap general election is now likely to be held on or around Oct. 15.

The day began with a Conservative member of Parliament crossing the Commons floor to join the Liberal Democrats. That left Prime Minister Boris Johnson weakened in form and substance. The defection means that, absent votes from other parties, Johnson cannot afford to lose even one Conservative or Democratic Unionist Party vote if he is to pass future legislation.

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