Obamacare premiums are expected to go up by 18 percent next year in a majority of states due to moves by the Trump administration to hinder the law’s marketplaces, according to a new report from the left-leaning think tank Urban Institute.
The study released Monday looked at the Trump administration’s moves to expand access to cheaper and lower quality health plans. It also examined the elimination of the law’s individual mandate starting in 2019, which was repealed in the tax reform bill passed last year.
Urban found that premiums on Obamacare’s marketplaces would rise by 18 percent in 43 states. In addition, 9 million fewer people will have insurance compared to if Obamacare was maintained in its current form, the study found.
The study looked at several moves that critics say will undermine Obamacare’s marketplaces.
The Trump administration released regulations last week to expand short-term plans from 90 days to nearly 12 months.
Short-term plans are generally cheaper but do not have to abide by Obamacare’s regulations for a plan to cover health benefits like maternity care or hospitalization. The plans also can charge sicker people more money and can have a cap on lifetime benefits, both of which were outlawed under Obamacare plans sold only on the law’s marketplaces.
The marketplaces are on the individual market, which are used by people who do not get insurance through a job or the government.
The short-term plans, which are cheaper because they don’t meet Obamacare’s requirements, will compete with Obamacare plans, Urban said.
Short-term plans are also expected to proliferate because of the repeal of the individual mandate’s penalties. Short-term plans did not qualify as insurance under the mandate that everyone get health insurance.
Urban added that the introduction of short-term plans would increase the number of people without minimum essential coverage by 2.5 million people.
It also found elimination of the individual mandate other changes that include elimination of Obamacare insurer payments would lead to an additional 6.4 million people uninsured in 2019.
The Congressional Budget Office has estimated that 13 million people would go without insurance over the next decade due to the loss of the individual mandate. However, CBO has said it is looking at its methodology for determining coverage losses due to the mandate repeal and that number could change later this year. Actuaries at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services saw more limited effects of the repeal, predicting it would reduce the number of insured by 4 million.
