A new Rasmussen Reports survey shows that 57 percent of likely voters support a temporary ban on refugees from seven countries in the Middle East and North Africa, with 33 percent opposed and 10 percent undecided.
But you should be skeptical about that survey.
First and foremost, it was conducted on Jan. 25 and 26, one day before Trump signed the executive order placing such a ban in place in the early evening on Jan. 27. That means anyone who responded to the survey did so before the spike in media coverage over the weekend, before it became clear the order was hastily written and implemented, and before the order sparked a massive backlash that included many conservatives.
Survey respondents might feel the same way about a refugee ban in general, but it’s unlikely they feel as positively about Trump’s executive order now that they know about the personal side: Green card-holders who were detained, Iraqis and others who have helped U.S. forces fighting against the Islamic State now banned, etc.
What’s more, the question wording seemed slightly biased toward a refugee ban. “Do you favor or oppose a temporary ban on refugees from Syria, Iraq, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen until the federal government improves its ability to screen out potential terrorists from coming here?”
Who could oppose pausing something until it can be improved? If you asked people if they support pausing Obamacare implementation until it can be improved, many would say yes. If you asked people if they support pausing Trump’s Cabinet confirmations until they can be improved, many would say yes.
A fairer question might have asked, “Do you favor or oppose a temporary ban on refugees from Syria, Iraq, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen?”
Regardless, survey answers are going to vary significantly depending on wording. If you asked the same question but instead called it “President Trump’s temporary ban on refugees” that, too, would change opinions.
Third, the survey respondents were 1,000 “likely voters.” Using likely voters makes sense when trying to get a good gauge of how people are going to vote on a certain issue. But this is a policy issue, and surveys should just be seeking out what the general populace feels. It’s also tough to know how likely it is someone will really vote so far away from an election. Likely voters are typically more conservative as a whole than registered voters, too, so that skews the results slightly more conservative, likely in favor of the refugee ban.
As great as it would be to have an instant poll of what the country thinks about the executive action, let’s pause and wait until the information we can get on this issue can be improved.
Jason Russell is the contributors editor for the Washington Examiner.
