The consensus formed within hours of Speaker John Boehner’s bombshell retirement announcement is that Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy of California is the clear front-runner to become the next speaker, and that a quick election favors him and would allow the House Republican Conference to remain relatively unified.
Rep. Reid Ribble of Wisconsin said McCarthy is a good choice to succeed Boehner, and should easily win the support of the majority of Republicans.
“He is well liked by a diverse group within the Conference,” Ribble told the Washington Examiner.
As of late Friday, there was only one announced challenge to McCarthy’s presumed bid to succeed Boehner, Rep. Daniel Webster, R-Fla. But it’s not clear that Freedom Caucus or Tea Party Caucus members can coalesce around a single alternative with any kind of numbers that pose a threat to McCarthy.
Key staffers are reminding people about last January, when Boehner was elected speaker amid clear dissatisfaction among Republicans. Conservatives couldn’t settle on a challenger, and splintered their votes against Boehner among 11 options, including former Secretary of State Colin Powell and Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky. Webster got the plurality vote among the disaffected Republicans, winning 12.
Aside from Webster, many other possible House Republican candidates for speaker spent Friday declaring they wouldn’t run. Almost immediately, Ways and Means Chairman Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, former House Republican Study Committee Chairman and Freedom Caucus co-founder Jim Jordan of Ohio, major Boehner antagonist Rep. Mark Meadows of North Carolina, and fellow Freedom Caucus player Rep. Raúl Labrador of Idaho all said they weren’t in the competition.
However, Financial Services Committee Chairman Jeb Hensarling of Texas is mulling a bid, according to his office. A former GOP Conference Chairman, Hensarling was once considered a rival who could possibly topple Boehner. His committee perch affords him access to deep-pocket donors, a quality speakers must possess, and he’s popular with conservative members.
While conservative Republicans are getting all the press for pressuring Boehner to leave, many mainstream members are pushing back and saying the intra-party fighting and bending over backwards to give the far right what it wants must end. New York’s Peter King was clear that whoever becomes speaker, he or she cannot pander to the House GOP’s most conservative elements.
“I think whoever runs for speaker should make it clear that he’s not going to give in to these people,” he told Politico on Friday. “We’re not going to appease them; the time for appeasement is over.”
With McCarthy seemingly set to replace Boehner, the bigger questions involve who will replace McCarthy as majority leader.
The two main contenders so far are Majority Whip Steve Scalise of Louisiana and House Republican Conference Chairwoman Cathy McMorris Rodgers of Washington. Both began jockeying for position a few weeks ago amid fresh talks that there could be a conservative coup against Boehner. Both also have the kind of operations in place necessary to mount a leadership bid quickly, according to insiders without a candidate in the hunt.
But they won’t be alone in the hunt for the No. 2 spot. Budget Committee Chairman Tom Price of Georgia, who lost his 2012 race for the No. 4 spot to McMorris Rodgers, is eyeing majority leader’s office. So are Rules Committee Chairman Pete Sessions of Texas and Illinois Rep. Peter Roskam, who lost to Scalise last year.
Below speaker and majority leader there will be lots of jockeying for other spots, members and staffers predict.
GOP Policy Committee Chairman Luke Messer of Indiana likely would take a shot at moving higher up the ranks. Rep. Markwayne Mullin of Oklahoma and Chief Deputy Whip Patrick McHenry of North Carolina are also expected to mount bids.
“It’s going to be a revolving chair situation” below the speakership, Ribble predicted.
Ribble also said that he hopes the conference schedules elections post haste. Being “rudderless” for too long would be bad for party unity and governing, he said.
