HERE WE GO AGAIN: The battle lines are drawn, both sides are dug in, and the only predictable outcome is that should the federal government be forced to partially shut down tonight because of congressional inaction, each side will blame the other for putting politics ahead of the nation and the military.
A WIN IS STILL A LOSS: At the Pentagon yesterday, President Trump said he was there to support the military in the face of a possible government shutdown. “But if for any reason it shuts down, the worst thing is what happens to our military,” Trump said on the steps of the River Entrance. “We don’t want that to happen, because we’ve just about — just about never needed our military more than now.”
The military is hurting, but a temporary shutdown is a minor inconvenience compared to cascading effects of another month-long continuing resolution that locks military spending into last year’s levels and keeps the services from starting new contracts. As Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson told the Washington Examiner in an interview to be published next week, “If we had a CR at last year’s levels, that is the equivalent to sequester for us, effectively. And it would mean very, very deep impact in the remaining six, seven months of the year.”
On Twitter last night, Dana White, the Pentagon’s chief spokesperson, noted the Defense Department has been laboring under a CR for three years now. “This is wasteful and destructive,” she tweeted. “No matter what, the #military will still show up and defend the American people, BUT we will not able to pay them until the shutdown ends.”
That’s why even some Senate Republicans say they won’t vote for the temporary emergency measure passed by the House last night. “I am not going to support continuing this fiasco for 30 more days by voting for a continuing resolution,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham in a statement last night. “It’s time Congress stop the cycle of dysfunction, grow up, and act consistent with the values of a great nation.”
STATE OF PLAY: Despite efforts from the Freedom Caucus, House Speaker Paul Ryan was able to muster the required 218 votes for passage of a CR last night, even picking up six Democrats on the way to passage, 230-197. The House version also has no protection for Dreamers, but does include a long-term extension of the Children’s Health Insurance Program, which gives Ryan and the Republicans ammunition to paint Democrats as willing to deny medical coverage for poor children if they vote against it in the Senate. “Do not jeopardize funding for the Children’s Health Insurance Program. It is risky. It is reckless. And it is wrong,” Ryan said following the vote.
The Senate convenes at 11:00 a.m. to begin consideration of the House measure, but with Graham opposing, and Sen. John McCain absent on medical leave, the Republicans need to pick up at least 11 Democratic votes, which at this moment seems like mission improbable.
THE REPUBLICAN STRATEGY: Under the leadership of Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, the Republicans appear poised to allow the vote to fail and then use the shutdown as a club to hammer the Democrats for manufacturing a fake crisis on the issue of protecting children of illegal immigrants. “There is a real emergency in the immigration area. We have until March to deal with it,” McConnell said on the Senate floor last night. “Make no mistake about it. We are where we are for one reason and one reason only. … And that is the insistence of our friends on the other side that we deal with this non-emergency right now.”
THE DEMOCRAT STRATEGY: Democrats, believing this is a now-or-never moment, also appear ready to let the shutdown begin, and then use the next few days to force bargaining on reinstating the Delayed Action for Childhood Arrivals program, and the lifting of the budget caps that have hamstrung the Pentagon.
“If we can’t figure this out … I urge the majority, the majority leader in particular, to support a clean extension of funding for a few days so that we can finally find a resolution and get down to the so many other things we need to do in this chamber,” Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said last night. “A bipartisan deal is within reach: on lifting the caps for both defense and domestic spending, on healthcare issues, on disaster relief, and on immigration issues. A bipartisan deal is within reach — I’ve been part of those negotiations — on all of those issues. And now is the time to reach it. Not a month from now.”
A senior Senate Democratic aide acknowledged to the Washington Examiner that Schumer and the party have the support to block the CR, writes Laura Barrón-López.
THE PRESIDENT’S STRATEGY: Blame the Democrats, who he says are smarting over the better-than-expected effects of the newly-enacted tax cuts, and are trying to exact revenge with a vindictive shutdown. “I really think the Democrats want a shutdown to get off the tax cuts,” Trump said in Pennsylvania yesterday. “Nobody thought, including the Democrats, it could work this well. They’ve been so good that I think Democrats would like to see a shutdown in order to get off that subject. That is not a good subject for them, the tax cuts, because of the way they’ve worked.”
PLAN B: Bills backed almost entirely by Democrats are on deck in both the House and Senate that would keep military paychecks flowing and provide pay to federal civilian employees given furloughs during a government shutdown. The legislation could blunt disruption for Defense Department troops and personnel stationed around the world and hundreds of thousands of workers if Congress fails to break the impasse by midnight.
“The Congress has done that before there is no reason to believe they wouldn’t do it going forward,” Rep. Rob Wittman told the Washington Examiner. Wittman, a House Armed Services subcommittee chairman and one of only two Republicans to back the shutdown legislation, is cosponsoring a bill by Rep. Don Beyer that guarantees back pay to federal workers including any of the 800,000 civilians at the Defense Department who are sent home. “This legislation is designed to shield civil servants, who need to support their families, from the disastrous effects of Congress’ failure to agree on a budget measure. We hope it will not be needed, but time is running out,” Beyer said in a release.
Sen. Ben Cardin has introduced the same legislation in the Senate and has 21 cosponsors who are all Democrats except Sen. Bernie Sanders. The House troop paycheck bill was filed Tuesday by Rep. Ralph Norman and has zero cosponsors. It protects active-duty service members who would have to show up for work during a partial shutdown but not get paid until the government is funded again.
WE HAVE MET THE ENEMY AND IT IS US: Elder statesman John McCain, unable to be in Washington for the vote because of his battle with brain cancer, nevertheless sent a blistering critique of his colleagues from his home in Arizona. “Ultimately this is not about which party is to blame; it is about all of us in Congress taking seriously our responsibility to adequately fund the military and protect our nation’s security,” McCain said in a statement. “Holding our men and women in uniform hostage to other demands is a dereliction of our first duty as members of Congress to provide for the common defense.”
“Congress must provide sufficient, stable funding for our military. We cannot do that without long-term budgeting. And we certainly cannot do that through continuing resolutions.”
Good Friday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense.
HAPPENING TODAY: Defense Secretary Jim Mattis will present an overview the Pentagon’s 2018 National Defense Strategy in a speech this morning at Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies downtown. It’s the first comprehensive DoD strategy document since the 2014 Quadrennial Defense Review produced under the Obama administration. This is a chance for Mattis, who has offered the criticism in the past that the U.S. had entered a “strategy-free time,” to put his stamp on the way the Pentagon thinks about current threats and future wars.
One big difference from the old QDR, is the NDS is largely classified. Congress dropped the requirement for QDR, largely because as a public document it was seen as a watered-down consensus report that was of little value in determining strategy. A short unclassified summary of the broad outlines will be released this morning to coincide with Mattis’ speech, an invite-only event at 10 a.m. Expect Mattis to lay out the goals, while keeping the actual strategy secret. The Pentagon plans to live-stream the speech on www.defense.gov/live.
TRUMP IN MAR-A-LAGO: Trump is planning to depart for his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida today, as Congress wrestles with the prospect of a midnight government shutdown. He is planning to celebrate the anniversary of his first year in office.
702 APPROVED: Trump is expected to sign the six-year extension of section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, which passed the Senate yesterday 65-34. The vote came just one day before the provision was set to expire. The bill provides the authority for the NSA to target communications of foreigners who are not on U.S. soil. The reauthorization contains a requirement that a warrant be obtained before those communications can be scoured for information about Americans who have been in contact with people in other countries.
NAVY NOMINEE: Trump’s nominee to oversee Navy facilities said she would make handling threats from climate change and rising sea levels “one of my top priorities if confirmed in the job.” Phyllis Bayer testified to the Senate Armed Services Committee that climate change is already causing issues for the Navy and she would delve even deeper into the problems than required by Congress, which has ordered a report on the 10 military facilities most threatened by changing climates. “I commit to you, senator, that in the effort that the Department of the Navy will be contributing to that study for the Department of Defense I will look even further into those issues,” Bayer told Sen. Angus King, a committee member.
The study was part of Congress’ annual National Defense Authorization Act, which also deems climate change a “direct threat” to U.S. national security that is endangering 128 military bases. “It’s affecting the infrastructure and it’s adding to the expense of the department’s infrastructure costs and maintenance,” said Bayer, who is nominated to be assistant Navy secretary for installations, energy and the environment. Trump signed the NDAA but the law is at odds with his own new National Security Strategy, which dropped the past administration’s references to climate change in favor of a focus on the U.S. business and economic climate.
King had asked Bayer to commit to doing a study on naval assets around the world and how they would be affected by sea rise. “We can talk about climate change in a variety of ways but one is sea level rise and it’s happening, it’s visible and it seems to be accelerating,” King said. “I think we need to know where our problems are.” A Navy study would identify the most serious threats and allow the public to understand rising sea levels are a “practical, dollars-and-cents problem” and not an abstract problem, he said. “Exactly, senator, it’s a real problem,” Bayer replied.
RYAN’S WARNING: Ryan delivered his promised defense address Thursday, saying declines in spending in recent years have left the military too small, overworked, and saddled with aging aircraft that cannot fly. “We have simply pushed our military past the breaking point,” Ryan said at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Instead of upgrading our hardware, we have let our equipment age. Instead of equipping our troops for tomorrow’s fight, we have let them become woefully under-equipped.” The strain has led to a spike in troop deaths, said Ryan, who disclosed plans to travel to Iraq next week to meet with troops there.
NOT SO FAST ON THAT SYRIA PLAN: Maryland Sen. Ben Cardin, ranking member on the Foreign Relations Committee, is raising a legal objection Trump’s plan to continue deploying American military forces in Syria, arguing the policy goes beyond Trump’s authority under federal law. “We are on the precipice of committing U.S. forces to another forever war,” Cardin said yesterday.
“I am extremely disappointed that the Trump administration announced a significant change in U.S. policy — the commitment of U.S. forces for an indefinite period of time in Syria — without first consulting Congress,” Cardin said. “The Trump administration lacks the authority to keep U.S. military forces in Syria after the defeat of ISIS.”
Cardin’s comments came after Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said the U.S. must keep troops in Syria to prevent a reemergence of ISIS, and to counter Iran’s malign influence in the region. “The United States will maintain a military presence in Syria focused on ensuring ISIS cannot re-emerge,” Tillerson said Wednesday. “We cannot make the same mistakes that were made in 2011 when a premature departure from Iraq allowed al-Qaeda in Iraq to survive and eventually morph into ISIS.”
TURNS OUT CHINA’S NOT HELPING, EITHER: Six ships that have been traced back to China were found by U.S. intelligence to have been assisting North Korea, violating sanctions placed on the rogue regime by the United Nations, according to a report. U.S. officials identified and gathered information about the movement of the cargo ships, which are owned or managed by Chinese companies, using satellite imagery and other intelligence means.
The evidence was presented to a United Nations sanctions committee, the Wall Street Journal reported Thursday. The U.S. then asked the body to formally declare a total of 10 cargo ships as sanctions violators. China pushed back on the request, but it did permit the U.N. to blacklist four ships, excluding the six vessels tracked by the U.S., that don’t have connections to Chinese companies.
In an interview with Reuters published Wednesday, the president said China has been assisting the U.S. with North Korea, but he accused Russia of countering that help. “Russia is not helping us at all with North Korea,” Trump said. “What China is helping us with, Russia is denting. In other words, Russia is making up for some of what China is doing.”
RUSSIA IN THE WAY: Russia has undermined international efforts to mitigate the use of chemical weapons, according to U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley.
“[O]ne nation stands in the way of the Security Council fulfilling its duty,” Haley said Thursday during a meeting on weapons of mass destruction. “That nation is Russia.”
That was a reference to Russian support for Syrian President Bashar Assad, whom the U.S. and western allies have accused of using chemical weapons in his fight to survive a civil war. Russian officials have maintained that the chemical weapons attacks were conducted by terrorists or western-linked enemies of the Assad regime.
THE RUNDOWN
New York Times: India Tests Ballistic Missile, Posing A New Threat To China
Washington Post: Report: Civilian Deaths Tripled In 2017 In U.S.-Led ISIS Conflict
New York Times: Trump Rebuked China for North Korea’s Oil Smuggling. It’s More Complicated.
USNI News: Navy FY 2019 Budget Request Will Include A 30-Year Shipbuilding Plan
The Diplomat: Japan Ready To Mass-Produce New Supersonic Anti-Ship Missile
Washington Post: U.S. troops punished for contact with foreign women during White House trip but not court-martialed
Military Times: Griffin interested in airborne missile defense
War on the Rocks: In Search of Accountability at Sea: The Precedents for the Navy’s Case Against Benson and Sanchez
Defense News: Air Force acquisition nominee takes aim at F-35 sustainment costs
USNI News: Carrier USS Ronald Reagan Maintenance Prompted Short Vinson Carrier Strike Group Deployment
Foreign Policy: Meet the Godfather of Modern Counterinsurgency
DoD Buzz: Failure to Pass Appropriations Bill Could Delay B-21 Program: Official
Task and Purpose: DoD To T&P: Stop Calling Our Syrian Border Force A ‘Border Force’
Stars and Stripes: Pentagon: Military-civilian disconnect could endanger all-volunteer force
Navy Times: How do you land a plane on a Navy ship in 1911? Carefully
Reuters: ‘Pyongyang Olympics?’ Backlash reveals changing attitudes in South Korea
Defense One: What if H.R. McMaster Is Right About North Korea?
Calendar
FRIDAY | JAN. 19
9 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW. Iran Looks East conference. Atlanticcouncil.org
10 a.m. 1740 Massachusetts Ave., N.W. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis announces the National Defense Strategy in a speech at at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. Live streamed on www.defense.gov/live.
12:15 p.m. 740 15th St. NW. The Syrian Opposition in 2018 with Osama Abu Zayd, spokesman for the Free Syrian Army, and moderator Peter Bergen, director of the International Security Program at New America. newamerica.org
MONDAY | JAN. 22
10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Charting a New Course for the Defense Industrial Base. csis.org
4:30 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Book discussion of “1917: Lenin, Wilson, and the Birth of the New World Disorder” with author Arthur Herman. hudson.org
TUESDAY | JAN. 23
11 a.m. Livestream only: Intelligence beyond 2018: A conversation with CIA Director Mike Pompeo. aei.org
12 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Turkey, the Kurds, and the Struggle for Order in the Middle East. hudson.org
12 p.m. A conversation with Daniel Shapiro, former U.S. ambassador to Israel. defenddemocracy.org
12:30 p.m. 1777 F St. NW. Foreign Affairs Issue Launch with Former Vice President Joe Biden. cfr.org
WEDNESDAY | JAN. 24
10 a.m. Dirksen 342. ROUNDTABLE – Reauthorizing DHS: Positioning DHS to Address New and Emerging Threats to the Homeland. hsgac.senate.gov
2:30 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. U.S. Responses to the North Korean Threat: A Conversation with Sen. Ted Cruz. hudson.org
3 p.m. Russell 222. Officer Personnel Management and the Defense Officer Personnel Management Act of 1980 with Lt. Gen. Thomas Seamands; Vice Adm. Robert Burke; Lt. Gen. Gina Grosso; and Lt. Gen. Michael Rocco. armed-services.senate.gov
5:30 p.m. 1667 K St. NW. Book Talk “American Grand Strategy in the Age of Trump” with author Hal Brands. csbaonline.org
THURSDAY | JAN. 25
9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Discussion with Gen. Robert Neller, commandant of the Marine Corps. csis.org
9:30 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Women and War: Securing a More Peaceful Future with Sherri Goodman, former deputy under secretary of defense for environmental security. wilsoncenter.org
10 a.m. Dirksen G-50. Global Challenges and U.S. National Security Strategy with former secretaries of state Henry Kissinger and George Shultz, and Richard Armitage, former deputy secretary of state. armed-services.senate.gov
10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. Multi-domain battle: Converging concepts toward a joint solution with Gen. James Holmes, commander of the Air Force’s Air Combat Command. brookings.edu
2 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. Distributed Defense: New Operational Concepts for Integrated Air and Missile Defense with Will Roper, director of the Strategic Capabilities Office; Lt. Gen. James Dickinson, commander of Army Space and Missile Defense Command; and Brig. Gen. Clement Coward, director of the Joint Integrated Air and Missile Defense Organization. csis.org
FRIDAY | JAN. 26
10 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Sustaining U.S. Leadership Against Nuclear Terrorism and Proliferation: Monitoring and Verification in the Digital Age. hudson.org
3:30 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s Visit to the US and the UN – Assessment and Outlook. atlanticcouncil.org
