BRACING FOR NORTH KOREA’S NEXT SALVO: South Korean officials are warning that North Korea may conduct another test of its newest intercontinental ballistic missile in the next 24 to 48 hours, to correspond with its Founder’s Day. The missile was tracked as it moved at night to what is believed to be its firing location. Pyongyang conducted two tests of its new Hwasong-14 ICBM in July, a missile that appears to have the range to hit much of the U.S. mainland. The test would come within days of Sunday’s sixth, and most powerful nuclear test yet, which North Korea claims was a hydrogen bomb with a yield of more than 100 kilotons.
‘GOING THE ROUTE OF THE MILITARY’: At a White House news conference yesterday, President Trump continued to insist that the use of force is still an option, but said it “would be great if something else could be worked out.” The president said there is still time for North Korea to come around. “Military action would certainly be an option. Is it inevitable? Nothing is inevitable.” Trump said. “So I would prefer not going the route of the military, but it’s something certainly that could happen.” Trump added that the U.S. military has never been stronger thanks to tens of billions of dollars of “new and beautiful equipment, the best in the world, the best anywhere in the world. Hopefully we’re not going to have to use it on North Korea. If we do use it on North Korea, it will be a very sad day for North Korea.”
PEACEFUL PRESSURE PERSISTS: The Trump administration declared an end to the Obama-era policy of “strategic patience,” and replaced it with a new doctrine of “peaceful pressure.” Yesterday at the State Department, spokeswoman Heather Nauert argued despite continued defiance from Kim Jong Un, the pressure campaign is working. “Now when you see a test that took place on Sunday, you may think, goodness, that is not working, but that is not the case, and here’s why: It can take a long, long time for sanctions to work. It can take a long time for a pressure campaign to work. It is not an overnight thing. It’s not a big, sexy military operation. This is handled very, very differently.”
As for Russia’s refusal to back a U.N. resolution that would ban oil exports to North Korea, which could hit Kim where it hurts, Nauert said, “This is not just a security situation for the United States. It’s not just a security problem for the United States. This is a security problem for the world. China recognizes that. I think Russia recognizes that. We’re getting different levels of cooperation. We were certainly happy when Russia backed the last round of U.N. Security Council resolutions.”
THE NORTH’S RHETORIC: North Korea’s state-run Korean Central News Agency continues to carry boastful and defiant statements that tout the power of North Korea’s new H-bomb. “If the U.S. adheres to sanctions and pressure, not properly judging the great significance and the stern warning given by the success in the H-bomb test of Juche Korea, it will face unprecedentedly resolute counteraction it can not hold control of,” the KCNA quotes from a statement issued yesterday. It says the successful test of an H-bomb “helped greatly deter the danger of a nuclear war” and called in an achievement that “deserves admiration by humankind.”
ONE SPOOK’S OPINION: Former acting and deputy director of the CIA Mike Morell says he thinks some of the conventional wisdom about North Korea’s capabilities may be wrong. We reported recently that Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Paul Selva suggested North Korea still has some technical hurdles to overcome before it can actually threaten the U.S. mainland, including mastering the tricky process of designing a warhead that can survive reentry into the atmosphere.
“I believe that the conventional wisdom may be based on a fundamental mistake of logic: Just because North Korea has not yet demonstrated a capability does not mean it does not have it,” writes Morell in an op-ed in the Washington Post this morning.
“Why is this such an important issue? Because, if you believe, as Selva and others apparently do, that North Korea cannot yet attack the homeland with a nuclear weapon, it follows that the United States can take preemptive military action against North Korea without risking a retaliatory nuclear strike by Pyongyang,” argues Morell. “However, if you believe, as I do, that North Korea might be capable of striking us today, it follows that a preemptive U.S. military strike against Pyongyang could bring about the very thing that we are working to avoid — the nuclear annihilation of a U.S. city and the deaths of millions of Americans.”
On that cheerful note, good Friday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense.
NO EXCUSES FOR NAVY COLLISIONS: Navy officials sat before the House Armed Services Committee Thursday and Adm. Bill Moran, vice chief of naval operations, told lawmakers there is no excuse for the two ship collisions this summer in the western Pacific that killed 17 sailors. “I want to be very clear that no matter the circumstances, the operating environment, or how strained our force might be, we should not and cannot have collisions at sea,” Moran testified. Navy investigations into what exactly led to the separate but similar deadly mishaps with the USS John S. McCain and USS Fitzgerald are progressing but not yet finalized, he said. The Government Accountability Office presented new evidence to lawmakers that vessels including McCain and Fitzgerald, which are stationed in Japan to give the U.S. a strategic advantage in the region, are overstressed by long hours and too little training. Rep. Rob Wittman, chairman of the Armed Services seapower and projection forces subcommittee, said the majority of ships are not ready to perform their primary duties in the Pacific. “I think that we can all agree that our nation failed these 17 sailors and their families with these tragic collisions,” Wittman said.
Moran acknowledged the high workload and an “alarming” rate of expired training certificates among the ships, even pointing to Congress’ use of stop-gap budgets as one cause. “We’ve asked those sailors to do an awful lot who are forward deployed, and perhaps we’ve asked them to do too much,” Moran said. The admiral was pressed by House Armed Services Chairman Rep. Mac Thornberry, who was not presiding over the hearing but showed up specifically to question Moran, about why he had testified earlier this year that overseas Navy forces were in good shape. “I personally made the assumption and have made the assumption for many, many years that our forward deployed naval forces in Japan were the most efficient, well-trained and most experienced forces we had because they are operating all the time,” Moran said. “I made the assumption, it was a wrong assumption in hindsight.”
REPLACING MCCAIN AND FITZGERALD: During the Armed Services hearing, Rep. Duncan Hunter pointed out that the Navy had seven ballistic missile defense ships deployed to the western Pacific, but lost two of those with the McCain and Fitzgerald collisions. “What’s going to fill that gap, how are you going to repair it?” Hunter asked Moran. U.S. Pacific Fleet, the services largest contingent of naval power, will fill the two gaps in missile defense by shifting deployments and moving ships around, Moran said. “The seven ships, some are in maintenance, and they are not always at sea,” Moran said. “We’re able to move some of those around to accommodate [Pacific Fleet commander] Adm. [Scott] Swift’s demand signals.”
MCCAIN WEIGHS IN: After the House hearing, Sen. John McCain seized on the new GAO report on Navy readiness that found 37 percent of warfare certifications for Navy destroyers and cruisers based in Japan were expired — a fivefold increase since 2015. “Now, it is clear that we are not only gambling our ability to fight and win at war, we are also damaging our ability to operate safely during peacetime,” the Senate Armed Services chairman said, citing a comment from Defense Secretary Jim Mattis that the U.S. military is “no longer managing risk, we are now gambling.” McCain said Congress is partly to blame for overseeing years of budget cuts that have spread the armed forces too thin. “The tragic consequences are all too apparent in the Pacific Fleet,” he said.
A-10s CRASH IN NEVADA: Lack of training can lead to military aircraft crashes, but training itself can also be dangerous. The Air Force lost two A-10 attack planes Wednesday night in a training accident at Nellis Air Force base’s Nevada Test and Training Range. Both pilots of the single-seat planes were able to eject. It’s too soon to say what caused the accident, but in most incidents in which two planes operating together crash at the same time, it means they probably came in contact with each other in the air. As always, an investigation is underway.
MCCAIN VS. THE CR: McCain also criticized congressional leaders as they head toward what is expected to be yet another continuing resolution, which he said would do more damage to the U.S. military by failing to provide stable funding. On the Senate floor, McCain said for years military leaders have pleaded for a predictable funding plan. He noted that Mattis told Congress this year that the Defense Department has been funded 30 times by continuing resolution in the last decade, and said these short-term fixes that don’t let Congress make lasting changes aren’t getting the job done.
“Is that a lot to ask? Stable, predictable funding, and provided on time?” McCain asked. “The chairman of our Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. [Joseph] Dunford also stated, and I quote, ‘Without sustained, sufficient and predictable funding, I assess … that within five years, we will lose our ability to project power, the basis of how we defend the homeland, advance U.S. interests, and meet our alliance commitments.’ ”
SUPER HORNET PURCHASE … MAYBE?: During Trump’s joint press conference with Kuwaiti Emir Sheikh Sabah Al Ahmad Al Sabah yesterday, the president had this to say: “During the same period and the same trip to Saudi Arabia, which was my great honor, representing our incredible country, his highness personally asked me to expedite a $5 billion agreement for the sale of American F/A-18 Super Hornet fighting jets for Kuwait. I am pleased to report that the State Department has now authorized this transferred purchase, which will not only strengthen our mutual security, but will greatly benefit American workers.”
This one’s a bit of a puzzler. On Nov. 17, the Defense Security Cooperation Agency announced it had approved the possible sale of 40 Boeing Super Hornets — 32 single-seat E models and eight two-seat F models — along with spare engines, radars, guns and other accessories. The whole sale was expected to be worth $10.1 billion.
So what was Trump talking about? Is this a new sale beyond the 40 planes approved last year? Or is he taking credit for something that was approved before he took office? Perhaps he cleared up another bureaucratic logjam after DSCA approval. Boeing spokesman Justin Gibson had this to say: “We appreciate Congress’ and the State Department’s support of this important sale, but at this time we must defer to the US government on any official details. We are encouraged by continued progress on the Kuwait fighter sales process.”
We’ll let you know what we find out.
CAREER KILLER: A Navy commander accused of sexual misconduct during a holiday party at the Pentagon in 2016 remained in his job as a spokesman for the Navy’s top admiral, while complaints against him were investigated according to USA Today. Cmdr. Chris Servello, 41, served as a spokesman for Adm. John Richardson, the chief of naval operations, until August, roughly eight months after Capt. Peter Hudson completed an inquiry into the booze-filled party at the Pentagon and recommended Servello be “reassigned immediately” to a position with “no supervisory responsibilities,” according to the published report. But no criminal charges were filed.
The married commander was reported to have exhibited “predatory behavior” when he slapped a woman in the buttocks while dressed as Santa Claus, and later appeared to hit on a subordinate officer.
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, an outspoken critic of the way the military handles matters related to sex assault and harassment, called for an independent investigation into Richardson’s handling of the incident. “This is an example of a commander who is aware of the allegations, aware of findings of predatory behavior and does nothing,” Gillibrand told USA Today. “I certainly think this individual, Servello, should be fired, and he should not be allowed to continue to serve. I do not believe that Adm. Richardson handled this case appropriately. There should be an I.G. investigation to see how he actually made his decisions.”
In a statement to USA Today, Richardson said, “I followed the prosecutor’s recommendations to the letter, imposing several adverse measures including dismissing Cdr. Servello from the staff and reassigning him to a non-supervisory position,” Richardson said. “I was advised by legal counsel throughout, and due process was strictly followed to safeguard both the dignity and safety of the complainants and the rights of Cdr. Servello.”
U.S. AND SYRIA: Trump downplayed the U.S. interest in Syria’s nearly seven-year civil war Thursday, saying at a press conference with Kuwait’s leader that “we have very little to do with Syria other than killing ISIS.” Trump campaigned for president criticizing the Obama administration’s pursuit of regime change in Syria and in July said on Twitter he ended “massive, dangerous, and wasteful payments to Syrian rebels.” That effort reportedly cost the U.S. $1 billion.
“What we do is we kill ISIS, and we have succeeded in that respect,” Trump said Thursday. “We have done better in eight months of my presidency in the previous eight years against ISIS. So ISIS is rapidly disappearing as you know, and that’s because of our great military.”
RUSSIAN GRIPES: Russia is threatening to raid State Department facilities as payback for Washington’s decision to close three Russian sites over the past week. “Does Washington believe that we also have the right to similarly ‘inspect’ the buildings of U.S. diplomatic and consular missions in Russia?” Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in a late Wednesday statement.
The threat derives from what the Russians claim U.S. officials did when taking control of the three facilities that were closed in the course of a spat over sanctions that traces back to Russian interference in the 2016 elections. The Foreign Ministry accused the U.S. of conducting “an illegal invasion of Russian diplomatic premises” and then engaging in “obscure [construction] work” upon entering the sites.
LEAFLETS CITED IN AFGHANISTAN ATTACK: Yesterday, U.S. Forces Afghanistan confirmed three American soldiers were wounded in a Wednesday attack on the Bagram airfield outside Kabul. Three Afghan troops were also wounded, and an Afghan interpreter was killed by a suicide bomber who attacked an entrypoint to the air base. The Taliban claimed responsibility, and said it was in retaliation for offensive leaflets dropped by U.S. forces, which had a sacred verse superimposed over a depiction of a dog being chased by a lion.
The attack came one day after U.S. Maj. Gen. James Linder issued an unusual public apology over the leaflet drop, which he acknowledged contained an image “highly offensive” to Muslims. “I sincerely apologize. We have the deepest respect for Islam and our Muslim partners worldwide,” Linder said. “There is no excuse for this mistake. I am reviewing our procedures to determine the cause of this incident and to hold the responsible party accountable.”
Navy Capt. Bill Salvin, a spokesman U.S. Forces Afghanistan, said linking to attack to the leaflet would be speculation. “While the Taliban claim this is in retaliation for the leaflet, they used a very similar tactic about a month or so ago when a suicide bomber attacked a NATO patrol,” Salvin said.
FORD CLASS: During the official swearing in of Richard V. Spencer as the new Navy secretary yesterday, Mattis noted that Harrison Ford was among those gathered outside the Pentagon for the event. “To Harrison Ford, who has so many times played roles affecting what we would just call the better angels of America, thank you.” It’s unclear why Ford was there, but we’ll note that the Star Wars and Indiana Jones actor was once in discussions to play Mattis in a movie about the battle for Fallujah. You can see a photo of the two meeting yesterday here.
THE RUNDOWN
AP: U.S. not disputing North Korea’s claim to have tested H-bomb
Wall Street Journal: Israel strikes military targets in Syria
Foreign Policy: A sneak peak at America’s war plans for North Korea
Defense News: New F-35 program head wants lot 11 deal by October
USA Today: ISIS losses in Syria bolster Assad’s ability to reclaim control
Wall Street Journal: In Syria, New Conflict Looms As ISIS Loses Ground
Defense Tech: SpaceX launches super-secret Air Force X-37B shuttle before Irma approaches
New York Times: No relief for Islamic State convoy blocked in Syria
DoD Buzz: Air Force taps L3 to develop future EC-X Compass Call on Gulfstream 550
CNN: US Warships Begin Hurricane Irma Relief Operations
Military Times: McCain opposes disaster relief bill, saying it could hurt the military
AP: Pentagon: Trump order to end DACA raises issues for military
Stars and Stripes: Legal ‘Fistfight’ Expected When Transgender Ban Gets To Court
Army Times: Rakkasans’ Afghanistan deployment could be blueprint for troops heading there next
Reuters: U.S. Requires Enhanced Screening Of Cargo From Turkey
Calendar
FRIDAY | SEPT. 8
9 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW. Discussion with Rep. David Cicilline of whether Russia’s RT news network register as a foreign agent. atlanticcouncil.org
10:30 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. National security imperative of addressing foreign cyber interference in U.S. elections. brookings.edu
12 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. The current state of Islamist terrorism 16 years after 9/11. heritage.org
3:30 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. A world history of the Cold War with author Odd Arne Westad. wilsoncenter.org
MONDAY | SEPT. 11
10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. U.S.-Ukraine relations in the context of Euro-Atlantic security Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, Ukraine vice prime minister for European and Euro-Atlantic integration. csis.org
1 p.m. 529 14th St. NW. A group of 9/11 family members and technical experts call on Congress to launch new World Trade Center investigation. press.org
TUESDAY | SEPT. 12
7:15 a.m. 1700 Army Navy Dr. Washington, D.C. chapter defense leaders forum with Gen. Glenn Walters, assistant commandant of the Marine Corps. ndia.org
10 a.m. House Visitor Center 210. World wide threats: Keeping America secure in the new age of terrorism. homeland.house.gov
10 a.m. 2172 Rayburn. Pressuring North Korea with sanctions, diplomacy and information with Susan Thornton, acting assistant secretary of state, and Marshall Billingslea, assistant treasury secretary. foreignaffairs.house.gov
12:30 p.m. 1777 F St. NW. The state of security in Africa with retired Gen. Carter Ham, former commander of U.S. Africa Command. cfr.org
2 p.m. 2212 Rayburn. Securing the peace after the fall of ISIL with Gen. James Bierman, director of Joint Chiefs of Staff Middle East division; Ryan Crocker, former ambassador to Iraq; Christopher Maier, director of the Defense Department’s D-ISIS Task Force; and Kathryn Wheelbarger, acting assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs. armedservices.house.gov
5:30 p.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. NW. How cyber, robots and space weapons change the rules for war with John Yoo, former deputy assistant attorney general. aei.org
WEDNESDAY | SEPT. 13
9 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. The United States, the Soviet Union, and the nuclear non-proliferation treaty of 1966-1968. wilsoncenter.org
9 a.m. 1152 15th St. NW. A conversation with Rep. Adam Smith on Russia, the military and emerging threats. cnas.org
9:30 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Asia disaster response and cybersecurity in a time of rising challenges and constrained resources. wilsoncenter.org
10 a.m. House Visitor Center 210. Sixteen years after 9/11: Assessing suspicious activity reporting efforts. homeland.house.gov
10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Liberal democracy as the path to greater security with Brookings President Strobe Talbott. brookings.edu
10 a.m. 2172 Rayburn. Joint subcommittee hearing on the president’s Fiscal Year 2018 budget request for Afghanistan and Pakistan with Alice G. Wells, acting assistant secretary of state. foreignaffairs.house.gov
11 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. A book discussion on James Reston, Jr.’s “A Rift in the Earth: Art, Memory and the Fight for a Vietnam War Memorial.” wilsoncenter.org
11 a.m. 1000 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Intellectuals and a century of political hero worship from Benito Mussolini to Hugo Chavez. cato.org
12 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. How political neglect is choking American seapower and what to do about it with Seth Cropsey, former deputy undersecretary of the Navy. heritage.org
2 p.m. 2200 Rayburn. The malicious influence of state and criminal actors in the Venezuela crisis. foreignaffairs.house.gov
3:30 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Why Iraq and Libya failed to build nuclear weapons. wilsoncenter.org
THURSDAY | SEPT. 14
10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Cyber warfare in the maritime domain with Vice Adm. Jan Tighe, deputy chief of naval operations for information warfare. csis.org
10 a.m. 419 Dirksen. U.S. policy options to support democracy in Venezuela with Marshall Billingslea, assistant treasury secretary for terrorist financing. foreign.senate.gov
10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. The USS Baltimore incident of 1891 and how history informs present problems. csis.org
12 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. Exposing and countering Iran. atlanticcouncil.org
5 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. Global threats, global perspectives and America’s role in the world. atlanticcouncil.org
FRIDAY | SEPT. 15
9:30 a.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW. Voices from Japan and visions for Japan’s future defense posture. stimson.org
10 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. A united front? U.S.-Japan relations at a time of uncertainty. wilsoncenter.org
