Carson overtakes Trump in Iowa, as Marco Rubio surges

Ben Carson has moved up to the top spot in Iowa, a poll of likely Republican caucus-goers has found.

The retired neurosurgeon leads the Republican field with 28 percent, while Donald Trump has fallen to 20 percent, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll. A September poll had Trump at 27 percent and Carson at 21 percent.

The poll also showed a surging Marco Rubio. The Florida senator comes in third with 13 percent, after getting only 5 percent in last month’s poll.

After Rubio comes Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul (6 percent), former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (5 percent) and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (5 percent). All other candidates garner under 3 precent of support from likely Iowa Republican caucus participants.

Carson has women to thank for his new lead, as he’s trouncing Trump 33 percent to 13 percent among women.

He also has what Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnpiac University poll, calls “almost unheard of” favorability ratings.

“Those who know Carson seem to like him. He has an almost unheard of 84-10 percent favorability rating among likely Republican caucus-goers, compared to Trump’s 53-43 percent rating. To borrow the line from Madison Avenue, ‘Almost no one doesn’t like Ben Carson,'” Brown said.

In contrast, 30 percent of Republican caucus-goers say they “would definitely not support” Trump. Bush comes in second with 21 percent.

Carson also sees strong support from evangelical voters, and got 36 percent of the vote from white, evangelical Christians, more than double Trump’s 17 percent.

Carson also enjoys the support of those who say he is honest and trustworthy. Eight-four percent of those asked said he shares their values, while 89 percent said he is honest and trustworthy. Eighty-seven percent said Carson cares the most about voters’ needs and problems.

“It’s Ben Carson’s turn in the spotlight,” Brown said.

The telephone-based poll of 574 likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers was conducted Oct. 14-20 with a margin of error is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.

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