This isn’t the first time Marco Rubio has heard Republican elders telling him he can’t win and shouldn’t run.
They told the Floridian the same thing in 2009, when he launched what first appeared to be a quixotic bid for Senate against Charlie Crist, then a popular governor who at the time was a Republican. It’s the mindset that led Rubio to ignore the naysayers then, emphasize sources close to the senator, that explains his at least initial disregard for Jeb Bush’s potential presidential candidacy as he ponders his own plans for 2016.
“I’ve never heard him or any of his people say, privately, that if Jeb Bush ran, he wouldn’t,” said Charlie Black, an influential Republican operative who serves on Rubio’s steering committee in Washington.
Bush on Tuesday announced that he is “actively exploring” a presidential bid, shaking up the presumed field of Republican primary candidates. The former two-term Florida governor, 61, might ultimately opt against running (although his supporters view this move as a signal that he’s all-in.) But if Bush does indeed run, his family’s deep political and fundraising network could make him a juggernaut of a candidate.
Rubio partisans concede that Bush could make a presidential bid difficult for the 43-year-old senator to pull off.
A Bush candidacy would eat into Rubio’s Florida fundraising base, and capture the backing of some of the big GOP donors outside the Sunshine State who might otherwise have contributed to, and raised money for, the senator. Rubio would have to make up the difference elsewhere to launch the kind of effective campaign his team has been preparing for, and many Republican insiders believe he would have a near-impossible time doing so.
But Rubio’s supporters believe the challenge is surmountable, in part because the senator has cultivated his own profile as a national leader during his first four years in Washington and built a solid political and fundraising network that extends beyond Florida. Rubio has developed a pretty reliable army of small donors who give online; and through his political action committee, Reclaim America, Rubio has assembled a well-oiled political operation that is essentially his presidential campaign-in-waiting.
“I think it’s a pretty solid network. He’s built some relationships here and nationally that I think he can count on,” said a GOP operative and Rubio backer who requested anonymity to speak candidly. “If they weren’t from the same state, we probably wouldn’t be having this conversation.”
Rubio’s Reclaim America PAC was active in the 2014 election cycle on behalf of House and Senate candidates, doing much more than cutting checks.
The PAC invested $760,000 to produce and run television ads on behalf of candidates Rubio endorsed. Rubio cut ads for three winning GOP senate candidates, among them Cory Gardner of Colorado and Joni Ernst of Iowa. Colorado is a key swing state; Iowa is home to the GOP’s first presidential nominating contest. Rubio backed Ernst when she was still an upstart candidate in the GOP Senate primary.
Rubio’s PAC also facilitated 40 appearances alone in the final few months of the midterm campaign, with the senator traveling the country to stump for federal and state candidates, the Republican National Committee and state party organizations. Rubio’s itinerary included stops in New Hampshire and South Carolina, home of the second and third GOP presidential nominating contests, respectively.
In interviews Tuesday, Rubio supporters indicated that, before Bush’s announcement, they were expecting the Florida Republican to pull the trigger on a presidential bid sometime next year. At least for now, they do not think that the preparations to run for the White House will cease. Rubio is more in touch with the modern, Tea Party-infused Republican base and is a much different figure than Bush, a GOP elder statesman, although both tend to share the same position on immigration reform, a politically charged issue in any GOP primary.
Rubio’s book, viewed as a precursor to a national campaign, comes out in January, and the senator is expected to make the most of his book promotion tour to advance his policy agenda and make the case for his brand of conservative leadership. Later in 2015, Rubio plans to unveil in an alternative to Obamacare that he has worked on with Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., the GOP’s 2012 vice presidential nominee.
Rubio might eventually determine that Bush running has made it too hard for him to raise the resources he needs to win. But those close to him say that, while this situation is clearly different than his 2010 GOP Senate primary bid against Crist, Rubio’s approach to the situation is similar.
“Marco has a lot of respect for Gov. Bush, and believes he would be a formidable candidate. However, Marco’s decision on whether to run for president or re-election will be based on where he can best achieve his agenda to restore the American dream, not on who else might be running,” Rubio spokesman Alex Conant said.
