When the leaders of the Nevada state Republican Party picked their recent state party chairman as the GOP candidate to represent NV-02 in the U.S. House, they thought they had saved the seat for Republicans. But the latest polling suggests that the party’s nominee could be in real trouble.
After Rep. Dean Heller, R-Nev., accepted an appointment to the U.S. Senate to replace resigning Sen. John Ensign, R-Nev., the Nevada Secretary of State declared an open ballot election (meaning there would be no primary) to replace Heller, but the state GOP changed the process via lawsuit. Mark Amodei, who resigned as state GOP chair to run for Congress, received the nomination after he won a huge majority of votes in a closed process held by the party’s state GOP central committee. The committee not only had the power to vote for the candidates, but to choose who qualified as a contender. Shifting the nominating power from the electorate to the party leadership precipitated former U.S. Senate nominee Sharron Angle’s withdrawal from the race.
When Amodei won the party nomination, he promised the state central committee, “I will do my level best to make your decision here today look like a smart one.” Now three weeks out from Election Day, Amodei looks vulnerable.
Daily Kos/Public Policy Polling (PPP), a Democrat-leaning firm, released a survey showing Republican nominee and former state party chairman Mark Amodei clinging to a bare one point lead over his opponent, State Treasurer Kate Marshall, D-Nev., in the race to represent Nevada’s 2nd district in the U.S. House of Representatives. On the other hand, a Republican-leaning firm, Magellan, showed Amodei with a 48-35 lead. But PPP has polled very accurately this year around the country, especially in the recent Wisconsin Recalls. PPP’s tighter poll results correspond with July fund-raising reports that showed Amodei losing the money war by almost 2-1.
The National Republican Congressional Committee has closed the funding gap by spending heavily on Amodei’s behalf. The NRCC’s decision to intervene in this race suggests that national GOP leadership thinks Amodei could lose without significant help.
The prospect of such weakness from a nominee handpicked by the party appears even more remarkable in light of the fact that Republican U.S. Senate nominee Sharron Angle, no political savant, won this district by over 19,000 votes in her unsuccessful campaign against U.S. Sen. Harry Reid, D-Nev. But when you consider Amodei’s record and the way the party avoided elections in nominating him, Amodei’s struggles on the campaign trail make more sense.
Before taking a position as Nevada GOP chairman, Amodei served in the state senate, where he took several moderate positions. For instance, Amodei supported a local gas tax. Amodei also voted for the largest tax hike in Nevada state history – a vote he has defended during the campaign, while Marshall has run ads attacking Amodei for that vote, possibly depressing the GOP base in an election that will be all about turnout. Also, she has come out in opposition to another tax on the campaign trail. Even though Amodei signed the Americans for Tax Reform pledge not to raise taxes, his record still allows the Democrat Marshall to run to the right of him on the issue.
Amodei still has the benefit of running in a Republican-leaning district, and he probably has the advantage heading into the home-stretch of this election. But Marshall will likely have Harry Reid’s field operation helping her drum out every possible vote.
Amodei might cough up this race. If he does, Democrats around the country will tout his defeat as a sign of Obama’s gathering strength heading into the 2012 elections. Win or lose, Amodei has not made the Nevada Republican Party leadership look smart for nominating him.
