Money and a Democratic majority is propelling Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley ahead of former Gov. Bob Ehrlich after months of statistical dead heat, political analysts say.
With the primary election behind them, the two candidates are pouring all their resources into the final stretch before the Nov. 2 general election. But O’Malley’s campaign war chest is three times the size of Ehrlich’s, making the Democrat’s visibility that much stronger, says political science professor Benjamin Ginsberg. Democrats outnumber Republicans 2-to-1 in Maryland.
“O’Malley has been able to put a lot more advertising on television,” said Ginsberg, director of the Johns Hopkins Center for the Study of American Government. “He has a well-funded series of commercials attacking Ehrlich. I haven’t seen many Ehrlich ads.”
O’Malley released three new TV ads on Wednesday focusing on education. The ads are airing in the Baltimore region, but likely will hit the Washington airwaves soon, O’Malley spokesman Rick Abbruzzese said. The Democrat has been running TV ads for months. Ehrlich bought his first TV spot in September.
A Sept. 20 Rasmussen poll showed O’Malley, with 50 percent of the vote, breaking ahead of Ehrlich, with 47 percent of the vote. But on Tuesday, a Washington Post poll showed O’Malley leaping 11 percentage points ahead of Ehrlich, with a 3.5-point margin of error.
The Maryland GOP is doubting the accuracy of the poll.
“I don’t think there is any way that this race is an 11-point gap,” said Ryan Mahoney, spokesman for the Maryland Republican Party.
O’Malley’s campaign says the gap grew out of the primaries.
“The primary ended, so people are starting to pay closer attention to the candidates,” Abbruzzese said.
Political activist Radamase Cabrera said no polls have accurately measured the number of minorities rallying behind O’Malley.
“When you look at polling data for likely voters, clearly to me, they are measuring white voters,” said Cabrera, a resident of Prince George’s County. “And the overwhelming majority of black voters and other voters of color are going to vote for Martin O’Malley.”
Cabrera said O’Malley doesn’t suffer from the anti-incumbent, anti-government sentiment rattling established politicians in campaigns across the country, because so many Marylanders work for the federal government.
And the Democrat is consistently reminding voters that Ehrlich, too, is an incumbent.
“It takes a particularly inept Democrat to lose Maryland,” Ginsberg said, recalling Kathleen Kennedy Townsend’s loss to Ehrlich in 2002. Ehrlich won 22 percent of Democratic votes in the 2002 race.
“It doesn’t take much to remind Maryland Democrats to be loyal,” Ginsberg said.
