Not Dead Yet

Big shifts among independent voters toward Democrats caused Republicans to lose the majority in Congress in 2006 and then shed even more seats in the House and Senate in 2008. Some argue these trends presage a permanent GOP congressional minority–or maybe even signal Republicans are on a path toward electoral extinction, the 21st century equivalent of the Whig Party.

These predictions would hold more validity if the current trajectory of voting patterns continued. But some recent evidence suggests independent voters are shifting again, a trend that might help Republicans capitalize in 2010 on the minority party’s historical advantages in off-year elections.