Big shifts among independent voters toward Democrats caused Republicans to lose the majority in Congress in 2006 and then shed even more seats in the House and Senate in 2008. Some argue these trends presage a permanent GOP congressional minority–or maybe even signal Republicans are on a path toward electoral extinction, the 21st century equivalent of the Whig Party.
These predictions would hold more validity if the current trajectory of voting patterns continued. But some recent evidence suggests independent voters are shifting again, a trend that might help Republicans capitalize in 2010 on the minority party’s historical advantages in off-year elections.
Recent history is instructive. Electoral trends among non-aligned voters are by no means constant. Exit polls reveal Republicans won among independents by three points in 1998 (48%-45%) and again in 2000 (49%-46%). Democrats prevailed narrowly in 2002 (46%-45%) and 2004 (49%-46%). But for Republicans, the bottom dropped out in the 2006 cycle when they lost among independents by a whopping 18 points (57%-39%). 2008 was a little better; but losing non-aligned voters by eight points (51%-43%) still meant further political erosion in both the House and Senate.
Some new indications suggest an improving environment for Republicans among independent voters. The first sign comes from a recent bipartisan poll conducted by National Public Radio (NPR). In a surprising result, the survey shows Republicans and Democrats in a virtual tie on the congressional generic ballot question (“Do you plan on voting for a Democrat or Republican in the next congressional election?”). GOP pollster Glen Bolger points out that the two parties tie despite a six-point party ID advantage for the Democrats. “The reason for the tie is simple,” Bolger writes on his blog. “Independents are moving toward the GOP.” The NPR survey finds Republicans leading on the generic ballot among independents (38%-24%) — a result one strategist joked “hasn’t occurred since the Lincoln Administration.” Bolger further notes the Republican position is now preferred among independents on taxes, energy, health care and the deficit.
These national trends are also playing out at the local level. In the still-undecided congressional election in upstate New York (NY-20) to replace former Democratic Congresswoman Kirsten Gillibrand (who was appointed to the Senate), Republican Jim Tedisco had a surprisingly strong showing among independents. National Journal’s Hotline underscored this point and the broader implications: ” our polling shows that [independents] are now up for grabs. That bears out what we saw in NY-20, where, according to the last Siena poll, Tedisco actually led among [independents]. When was the last time GOPers were competitive among these voters? It’s been a while.”
A Republican strategist familiar with the district agrees. “Our latest polling before the general election in November 2008 had us down by about 25 points among independents.” Campaign sources told me Tedisco completely closed that gap in their final polling before the special election.
What explains the Republican renaissance among these non-aligned voters? At least two factors seem plausible. Some believe it has to do with a decline in enthusiasm among Democratic partisans following two successful election cycles. “In 2006 Democrats were very enthused about taking back the majority in the House, and in 2008 it was Barack Obama running for president. In both cases that enthusiasm was contagious and affected independents,” Professor Jim Gimpel of the University of Maryland told me. Research shows the excitement level of partisans sways these non-aligned voters. “They kind of get pulled along,” Gimpel says. “And in the absence of the higher levels of enthusiasm, we expect their support to drop back.”
Another factor may involve recent news of spending and debt surrounding the budget debate in Washington. We know a significant proportion of self-identified independents are deeply concerned about the size of the federal government (think Ross Perot voters, many of whom were self-described independents). These Americans may be among those first to reconsider their support for Democrats given all the recent news about the growth in debt and spending in President Obama’s budget.
Bolger agrees. Independent voters, he says, “are worried that they over-corrected in the 2006/2008 elections combined, and now have more of a liberal slant to government than they want. They want change, but with checks and balances.”
Clearly it’s not time for Republicans to pop the corks. Major challenges remain, including a popular Democratic president, an enduring gap on party identification, and weak voter trust on a variety of key issues. But independents are indeed the principal agents of change in U.S. elections. When they shift, it can kill a political party’s electoral fortunes. So recent evidence of GOP improvement does say one thing about the party: They’re not dead yet.
Gary Andres is vice chairman of research at Dutko Worldwide in Washington, D.C., and a regular contributor to THE WEEKLY STANDARD Online.
