Maryland voters will reap the benefits of an earlier primary date and play a “pivotal” role in the increasingly competitive presidential nominee selection, political scholars are predicting.
After New York Sen. Hillary Clinton?s victory Tuesday night in the New Hampshire Democratic primary, political experts said nominees are unlikely to be decided by Feb. 5 ? Super Tuesday ? when voters in 20 states will cast ballots. One week later, Marylanders will vote, nearly a month earlier than in previous years ? a move supporters hoped would boost their national impact.
Scholars said Wednesday the change appears to be having the intended effect.
“It now looks like there will be no quick decision for either party, so Maryland will become more relevant,” said Curtis Gans, a political science professor at American University in Washington. “If both Republican and Democratic primaries on Super Tuesday go solely for one candidate in each party, then Super Tuesday will determine it. I don?t think that will happen.”
On the Democratic side, Clinton is neck-and-neck with Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, who won in Iowa last week. Attorney General Doug Gansler, a Democrat who is heading Obama?s campaign efforts in Maryland, said Clinton supporters turned out in force in New Hampshire because Obama was the overwhelming favorite.
Maryland?s new primary date ? Feb. 12 ? coincides with primaries in Virginia and the District of Columbia. Gansler said he expects the candidates to appear in the area before Feb. 5 to battle for Maryland votes.
“I?ve always thought Maryland will be relevant,” Gansler said.
Many states set earlier primaries this year to match the impact of the primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire ? traditionally the earliest in the country ? said Lenneal Henderson, professor of government and public administration at the University of Baltimore. While the net effect could be negligible, Henderson said he believes Maryland voters will be “pivotal.”
Henderson said he supported moving up Maryland?s primary, last held March 2, 2004.
“If there is a big lead acquired by either one of them, of course Maryland may be less significant,” Henderson said. “But, right now, we?ve got to call Maryland significant.”
