As the debate heats up about former President Donald Trump’s future following the Jan. 6 committee revelations, congressional leaders and the Biden administration face the potential dangers of prosecuting a former leader and the precedent that might set up a political vendetta in the future.
South Africa grappled with the same problem recently and opted to imprison former President Jacob Zuma despite the political shockwave the action sent across the country. After a protracted standoff, Zuma handed himself over to police less than an hour before the expiration of a judicial deadline. Shortly after, widespread civil unrest convulsed the country, causing the deaths of more than 300 and an estimated $1.5 billion in property damage.
The top line: South Africa’s highest court said that Zuma had to be held accountable or the nation would lose credibility that all are seen as equal before the law. Justice Sisi Khampepe of the country’s highest court wrote that “the unique and special political position that Zuma enjoys as the former president” made it even more important that he be held accountable: “He has a great deal of power to incite others to similarly defy court orders because his actions and any consequences, or lack thereof, are being closely observed by the public.”
Other heads of state who have faced justice include former French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who was convicted of corruption in 2021. Sarkozy is appealing his case to stay out of jail. No protests accompanied the Sarkozy verdict. Peru has prosecuted several presidents, including Alberto Fujimori, who was jailed for more than 15 years for committing human rights abuses, as has South Korea.
Confronted with a rogue ex-president, leaders are faced with two bad choices. They can ignore criminal behavior and signal that presidents, like kings, are above the law. Or they can prosecute those presidents and face the wrath of their supporters and accusations of a politically motivated witch hunt.
Six out of 10 Americans say Trump should be charged for the Jan. 6 riots, according to a recent ABC News/Ipsos poll. The Jan. 6 committee appears to be focused on framing the issue to show that Trump knew he had lost the election but that he was intent on holding on to power by any means necessary, thus feasibly showing his criminal intent.
Exactly a year ago, South Africa appeared to be on the brink. Its fledgling democracy, barely 30 years old, was badly bruised by Zuma’s arrest and its aftermath, but it rose to the challenge and scraped by. South Africa is a special case. It’s the most unequal place on Earth, with the highest Gini coefficient, which measures the gap between the haves and the have-nots.
Many who rioted and participated in violence were looking for a match to light the fire and used Zuma’s arrest as the trigger. Whatever happens with Trump, the United States is a more resilient and older democracy and can hopefully pass this difficult stress test.
Samson Mulugeta is a former Johannesburg bureau chief for New York Newsday and has reported from more than 50 conflict zones in Africa and Asia.
