The threat of a global avian flu pandemic has so far sounded like distant thunder to American ears.
With the recent discovery of the virus in Scotland ? and a new survey finding that 42 percent of health care workers won?t respond to a pandemic ? the rumbling grows louder. We must act now to ensure that we are better prepared for this emergency, with its potential for exponentially worse outcomes, than we were for Hurricane Katrina.
Currently, avian flu only occasionally moves from birds to humans and generally only with frequent close contact between them. But viruses are notorious for their ability to mutate ? that?s why new vaccines for the common flu have to be developed yearly.
The avian flu is much more dangerous than current strains of the annual flu because no one born after the last serious outbreak in 1918 has any immunity to it.
What happens if the avian flu virus mutates so it spreads from human to human?
The initial outbreak is likely to occur in a rural farming community in a less-developed country where birds and humans are in frequent, close contact. To prevent a pandemic, all countries must work through the World Health Organization to identify the initial outbreak quickly. Before the initial outbreak spreads, members of the global community must rapidly deploy some of their small stockpiles of existing anti-flu medication and avian flu vaccine to the ring of people who live and work around the initial cases. So-called “ring” vaccination and treatment is the only likely way to keep an initial local outbreak from spreading.
What if we fail to contain the initial outbreak?
If the virus spreads before adequate supplies of medication or vaccine are produced, draconian public health measures would be necessary.All public gatherings ? from school to sporting events ? would have to be canceled as people “shelter in place” to avoid contact with the sick. Significant restrictions on individuals? liberty would be commonplace for the several weeks it would take for the epidemic to run its course. Hospitals would quickly run out of beds and potentially millions of Americans could lose their lives.
Such a disastrous scenario can be avoided only if we get serious about the avian flu. We need to rapidly ramp up our capacity to produce effective vaccine and antidotes.
The United States has fewer than 3 million doses of modestly effective vaccine and medications on hand. That means there aren?t enough supplies for the Baltimore-Washington metro area, much less the entire country.
President Bush called for research into improved vaccine and production methods, but the funding he proposed won?t come close to supplying the entire country, and Congress cut that funding in half!
Funds for training first responders are also necessary so that an entire city population can be vaccinated within the several-day “window” of opportunity between the initial outbreak and the time avian flu actually hits our shores.
Unless we act now, a global pandemic could make Hurricane Katrina seem like a spring shower.
Dr. Peter Beilenson received his MD from Emory University and his master?s in public health from the Bloomberg School at Johns Hopkins University. He served as health commissioner of Baltimore for the past 13 years before stepping down to run for Maryland?s 3rd Congressional seat. As health commissioner, Dr. Beilenson was charged with bioterrorism and disaster preparedness for the region. He can be reached at 410-323-1777 or [email protected].
