With 15 Democrats still technically running for president, a Senate impeachment trial looming, and a year of political madness ahead of us, one can imagine an infinite number of scenarios for the 2020 election. But in the end, there will only be four basic outcomes.
We don’t know who the Democratic nominee will be, but it’s a safe bet that the candidate will, broadly speaking, either come from the Joe Biden wing, which is promising to work within the system to advance traditional liberal policies, or from the resurgent Left, where Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders are promising to deliver radical change by smashing the system.
Although it could be argued that there are really only two outcomes — President Trump is reelected or he isn’t — in the long run, the ideological temperament of the Democratic candidate who beats Trump or loses to him will have a dramatic impact on the trajectory of American politics.
Thus, the four possible outcomes are: 1. A Biden-style Democrat wins; 2. A Warren/Sanders Democrat wins; 3. Trump beats a Warren/Sanders Democrat; 4. Trump beats a Biden Democrat.
Before exploring each potential outcome in more detail, it’s worth noting several other realities. To start, while there are a range of possibilities in terms of control of Congress, the Senate is likely to be closely divided no matter who wins the White House, meaning neither party is likely to come away with a large enough majority to enact dramatic legislative changes in 2021. Furthermore, whichever party wins in 2020 is likely to lose seats during the 2022 midterm elections.
At the same time, there is a growing shift toward favorably viewing socialism among younger voters, who will become the dominant voting bloc as older and more conservative generations age out of the electorate. The outcome of the 2020 election could either galvanize the younger group or disillusion them.
Given these factors, here are how things could play out under the four possible outcomes:
A Biden-style Democrat wins: In this scenario, the political clock is more likely to “reset” to the traditional liberal vs. conservative fights. There won’t be any ambitious legislation passed, but various Trump executive branch policies will be reversed. In the best case for Democrats, they’ll be able to replenish the federal bench with younger liberal judges, and Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg would be able to retire safely. A victory by this wing would also stave off, for the time being, the drift toward socialism among Democrats, by reinforcing the idea that the party still wins presidential elections by offering policy incrementalism rather than its version of “burn it all to the ground” extremism.
A Warren/Sanders Democrat wins: It would have tremendous symbolic importance for a candidate to win who is embracing such radical policies, including a $34 trillion plan to replace all private health insurance with socialized coverage. It would also mean another escalation of pitched partisan warfare and much more aggressive use of executive actions that will trigger constant legal showdowns. That said, if a Warren/Sanders type wins, it will be a bit too early for them. That is, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez types will still comprise only a small portion of the overall Democratic Congressional presence, and any Senate majority will be narrow. And so, most of the ambitious legislative agenda will be stymied. This could help disillusion the younger generation on the sweeping proposals to radically transform American capitalism.
Trump beats a Warren/Sanders Democrat: In this scenario, we’re likely to see another burst of efforts to cut taxes or adopt other policies that unify the Republican Party. Since any Senate majority is likely to be too small to get much passed on other issues (such as healthcare or immigration), Republicans will likely spend most of their time in 2021 and 2022 confirming more judges — possibly another Supreme Court pick. There will also be efforts to push the envelope further on executive actions. Though history would suggest that Republicans would get crushed in the midterm elections at the end of Trump’s sixth year in office, potentially setting Democrats up for victory in 2024, the Democratic wave is likely to come from the center-left. That is, if Democrats nominate a Warren/Sanders type in 2020 and lose, it’s likely to play into the hands of those within the party who believe the party needs to run more moderate candidates to appeal to swing-state voters. That makes it unlikely that we’ll see further gains by the Left within the party in 2022 or 2024.
Trump beats a Biden Democrat: Although this would deliver the same short-term benefits as the previous outcome, in the long-run, it could be the worst of all outcomes. If Democrats go for a “safe” choice in 2020 and lose, it will galvanize those who argue that the party can only win if it offers a much bolder contrast. It will mean that in 2022, the Democratic midterm election gains are much more likely to result in a flood of AOC-types coming to Congress, and in 2024, the presidential nominee coming from the far left. Millennials are already on the cusp of supplanting baby boomers as the largest adult population. Add five years and Generation Z, with two terms of Trump fatigue setting in and an uncertain Republican succession plan, and there may be a perfect storm for a socialist to gain power. Only unlike in 2021, by 2025, he’d have a good shot of taking over with a governing majority that would actually enable him to pass some of his transformational agenda.
The bottom line: If Trump loses next year, conservatives should hope he falls to somebody like Biden. If he wins, they should hope he beats somebody like Warren — otherwise, any victory would likely be very short-lived.
