We can’t do this forever. That much is obvious.
Already, the public is growing tired of social distancing, the mandated quarantines, and the economic costs that necessarily accompany our strategy to contain the coronavirus. Health experts predict we could reach the peak of the COVID-19 virus in the next two weeks, but our problems will continue through the summer, and possibly through the fall, according to Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
So, where do we go from here? We clearly need a sustainable, long-term strategy that will allow the United States to return to some sense of normalcy while keeping the curve flat. Right now, the only plan we seem to have is to take things two weeks at a time.
This isn’t just about inconvenience. New COVID-19 virus epicenters are emerging in Florida, Michigan, and Texas, while record numbers of U.S. citizens are filing for unemployment. There have been real costs to this shutdown and with no end in sight. People have bills to pay, and they’re looking nervously at their calendars. Some are beginning to lose hope.
Dr. Scott Gottlieb, the former commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, may have an answer. Joined by several other health experts, Gottlieb has proposed a long-term strategy with a step-by-step timeline. The aim is to reopen the country slowly while continuing to control the spread of the coronavirus.
The long-term plan, published by the American Enterprise Institute, is broken into four phases. The first requires a coordinated mass-testing effort and a sharp increase in hospital critical care beds. We should be testing 750,000 people nationwide per week to track the epidemic, Gottlieb argued, a number that we’re already quickly approaching.
Some regions will reach this goal faster than others. But to transition to phase two, a state must see a sustained reduction in new cases for at least 14 days, which is the incubation period of the virus.
The second phase would be to gradually lift social distancing requirements, allowing schools and businesses to reopen while continuing to enforce six-foot physical distancing and safety precautions such as medical masks and fever screenings. This phase will likely have to occur through the summer months, according to projections by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Once the U.S. has developed a vaccine or drug to treat the COVID-19 virus, phase 3 can begin, according to Gottlieb’s report. The third phase would accelerate new treatments and increase the surveillance of high-risk groups to better track and contain the virus. Efficient treatment would allow the country’s healthcare industry to move into phase 4, during which the federal government and the scientific community would build up the nation’s public health infrastructure.
The timeline isn’t exact because each state’s situation is different. But the hope is that if we comply with the stringent social distancing mandates right now, phase 2 will be possible toward the end of May or early June, according to the report. There is a lot that must be done between now and then. But this is the light at the end of the tunnel that many need.
