The European Union and the United States say they’ll impose new sanctions on Russia. Vladimir Putin’s regime isn’t sitting silent.
On Wednesday, the Kremlin warned that it will deliver an “asymmetric response” to any EU sanctions. Vladimir Chizov, Russia’s longtime ambassador to the EU and a loyalist of foreign minister Sergey Lavrov, told Russian state media that “in case of further destructive steps from the European Union, Russia will not let grass grow under its feet, but will find corresponding ways and means to influence the situation. We can call it an asymmetric response, but those steps definitely won’t go without consequences.”
This reference of “asymmetric” retaliation is quite obviously designed to provoke EU fears of Russian intelligence activity. Considering the penchant of Russia’s GRU and FSB intelligence services for nerve agent attacks, and the SVR’s proven ability to conduct highly effective cyberoffensives, Chizov’s threat is credible. The deliberate vagueness of “asymmetric” also plays to Moscow’s intelligence interest in provoking fear via its adversaries’ unclear perception of what it might do.
Further evincing Russia’s disdain for the EU’s sanction threats, Chizov added that Brussels had decided to “tread on thin ice,” pursuing sanctions so as not to “affect the interests of the EU countries themselves, including the Nord Stream 2 project, so as to look convincing to the excited liberal public, including to those in the European Parliament, and finally, so as not to harm the emerging romantic relationship with the new U.S. administration.”
The unfortunate truth is that the EU has invited such overt disdain.
Consider, for example, the recent adventure of EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell to meet Lavrov in Moscow. Coming just after Putin sent opposition politician Alexei Navalny to the gulag, Borrell was warned that his trip would broadcast exactly the wrong signal at the wrong time. Undeterred by that obvious reality, Borrell pushed on. What followed was as predictable as it was pathetic: an homage to Monty Python, in which Lavrov word-bombed Borrell’s credibility into oblivion.
The EU can and must do better if it is to deter Russian retaliation over its new sanctions.
French President Emmanuel Macron must increase the EU’s pressure on German Chancellor Angela Merkel to abandon her Nord Stream 2 energy pipeline. Chizov’s referencing of that pipeline on Wednesday shows just how pivotal its demise is to the EU’s strategic credibility. President Biden should also act. While Biden is receiving friendly media coverage for his pledge to impose new sanctions on the Kremlin over its treatment of Navalny, he has yet to do anything. Indeed, Biden has refused to enforce Trump-era sanctions against Nord Stream 2. Putin has taken notice and is escalating against Western interests in Ukraine. More resolution is needed. To deter Putin, the Russian leader must know his aggression will meet excessive counterforce.
Both Brussels and Washington say that the trans-Atlantic alliance has been reborn and that Putin now faces a new challenge. Chizov’s gall shows the Russians aren’t impressed.
