In a backhanded sort of way, Mitt Romney has delivered one last disappointment to the most conservative activists of the Republican Party.
They did everything they could to prevent the former governor of Massachusetts from becoming the GOP presidential nominee in 2008. They opposed Romney again in 2012, watching in frustration as conservative candidates fought it out among themselves while Romney didn’t have to battle for his space in the moderate lane.
But this time, with the 2016 GOP field taking shape, some of those conservatives were actually looking forward to a Romney run. They hadn’t changed their minds about Romney, of course, but instead were hoping to see an ugly, divisive, energy-sapping fight on the moderate side of the Republican field in hopes that a more conservative candidate could walk away with the nomination.
The Washington Examiner‘s Philip Klein summarized the conservatives’ “dream scenario” this way: “The more candidates there are fighting for the affection of the Republican elites commonly known as the Establishment, the better chance there is that a conservative candidate could exploit the division and capture the nomination.”
In the first-voting state of Iowa, disappointment reigns in some conservative circles now that Romney has announced he won’t run. “My conversations have been with mostly sad people, hoping [Romney] would run and divide the Establishment vote,” emails former Rick Santorum supporter Chuck Laudner, an influential force among social conservatives. “It’s probably good news for the [New Jersey Gov. Chris] Christie folks here in Iowa.”
“Leave it to Romney to disappoint conservatives to the bitter end,” added Steve Deace, the conservative radio host who sometimes referred to Romney 2016 as “Zomney.” “For once, we were looking forward to him running again, if only to help us do opposition research on Jeb. But alas, he got capped in broad daylight by the Bush family, who it turns out is really the GOP Establishment. Now we conservatives have to have our champion by the end of this year, or else we risk splintering again and repeating the mistake of the last several primary cycles.”
On a national level, some conservative writers echoed the Iowa activists’ hopes. “Run, Mitt Run!” was the headline of an article by Quin Hillyer on National Review Online. “The more ‘establishmentarians,’ the better — if a true conservative is to win the nomination.”
“The Establishment is very good at winning. They basically don’t lose. The guy they get behind almost always wins the nomination,” wrote Mollie Hemingway in The Federalist in an article headlined “Conservatives Should Be Elated Mitt Romney And Jeb Bush Are Running.” Hemingway was hopeful — for a little while. “This year everything is different,” she wrote. “And it means that more principled candidates might finally have an opening.”
That was before Friday morning, when Romney revealed his decision not to run. Now the conservatives hoping for a divided-moderates scenario have to depend on Christie and perhaps a few minor candidates to challenge Bush and divide the Establishment vote. But there’s no denying what the conservatives really wanted was a clash-of-the-moderate-titans, a Mitt-Jeb showdown that opened the door for a more conservative alternative. And now that won’t happen.
But conservatives still have this. In hoping to avoid a Jeb-unites-the-establishment scenario this year, they may have an unlikely ally: Romney himself. In his announcement Friday, Romney made it clear he favors almost anyone other than Bush. “I believe that one of our next generation of Republican leaders, one who may not be as well known as I am today, one who has not yet taken their message across the country, one who is just getting started, may well emerge as being better able to defeat the Democrat nominee,” Romney said. “In fact, I expect and hope that to be the case.” In that wish, Romney and the conservatives may finally be on the same side.
