Near-impossible car access to the District on Inauguration Day could limit crowd size and leave many stranded on the region’s roadways, but within the city packed conditions likely will remain.
Even if only 1 million people make their way through Metro congestion and security checkpoints, that’s about twice as many as can fit on the National Mall, according to crowd expert Clark McPhail, a professor emeritus at the University of Illinois and author of “The Myth of the Madding Crowd.”
Allowing for 5 square feet per person, slightly larger than an opened newspaper, just over 500,000 people can fit between the West Lawn of the Capitol and the Washington Monument. Pack in 1 million onlookers and the nearness would be comparable to packing about 2,000 people onto a basketball court.
“I don’t know where you’ll put a million people,” said McPhail, who has analyzed dozens of D.C. crowds.
Security officials have been expecting between 1 million and 2 million people in town for the inaugural events even before yesterday’s announced road closures, according to a Wednesday morning briefing by top police and FBI officials.
Up to 300,000 could funnel through 13 security checkpoints along the Pennsylvania Avenue parade route, and countless more could be trapped in their cars on congested roadways when Barack Obama takes his oath of office.
“The city has a capacity at some point,” said Joseph Persichini Jr., director of the FBI’s Washington Field Office. “The city will adjust on its own.”
But for the people who trekked across the country to witness the inauguration and find themselves unable to board a train or cross a Virginia bridge into the District, frustrations could boil over.
“The Secret Service and cooperating agencies may have a great plan, but if it’s not communicated to the public, it can be compromised,” said Paul Wertheimer, president of Los Angeles-based Crowd Management Strategies Inc.
Wertheimer recommended an immediate deployment of public information around the country via everything from TV commercials to text messages in order to inform potential travelers of what they can and cannot bring, and how to prepare for the crowds and possible weather conditions.
“The D.C. public is more sophisticated about how to manage during major events, but it’s not just a local event anymore,” Wertheimer said. “So how are they telling everyone else?”
D.C. Councilman Phil Mendelson, the Council’s lead but unsuccessful voice for closing bars and restaurants at their normal hour during the inaugural week, instead of the 4 a.m. closing times that were approved, shared Wertheimer’s concerns.
“People are coming to celebrate, and I’m hopeful that this won’t become so onerous that people get angry,” Mendelson said. “But I just don’t know.”
