Vermont Public Radio’s Bob Kinzel reported that the state’s primary could become a nationally significant race for the first time in years. He’s correct, and that’s welcome news for front-runner Mitt Romney.
Vermont’s delegate allocation system could be a windfall for heavily supported candidates. Under state rules, If a candidate is able to win more than 50 percent of the vote, he will take-away all 17 of Vermont’s delegates. However, if no candidate wins a majority, the votes will be split proportionally among all candidates who secured at least 15 percent of the vote.
Ohio’s proportional allocation scheme means that a candidate with a big win in Vermont can see a larger net gain of delegates than a modest winner in much-larger Ohio. With Santorum and Romney currently neck and neck in Ohio and Gingrich and Paul polling strongly at third and fourth place, that scenario is not entirely unlikely.
A poll released in late-February showed Romney leading Santorum, his closest rival in the state, 34 to 27 percent. Ron Paul, whose long-term strategy depends on winning delegates in proportional allocation states, polled at 14 percent, just below the delegate threshold. Gingrich came in fourth with 10 percent.
Romney, the only candidate to set up field offices in the state, remains heavily favored to win. Robo-calls recently recorded by former first-lady Barbara Bush touting her and former President George H.W. Bush’s support for Romney may influence the closing outcome of the race.
The big question now is whether Romney received enough of a bump from the primary wins in Michigan, Arizona and Washington to win all 17 delegates outright. If so, even if Santorum pulls off a narrow victory in Ohio, Romney will make up for the loss and then some in tiny Vermont.
