House Democrats remain confident that they will take back the majority in November even as their generic ballot margin continues to dwindle, raising Republican hopes.
With just under six months until Election Day, the Republican deficit in polls asking which party respondents prefer to control Congress is at its lowest point of the 2018 cycle. According to the RealClearPolitics average of polls, Democrats lead Republicans by 4.7 points. Just under three months ago, Democrats held a more than 9-point advantage in the metric.
Nevertheless, they aren’t fretting ahead of November.
“I don’t think there’s that much shift at all,” said House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., on Thursday, tamping down talk of the slimmed-down lead. “We’re very pleased about how things are going … I wish the election were today. I think we would win overwhelmingly today. But it’s not today. So, we just take it one district at a time.”
“We’re on our path. [Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Ben Ray Lujan] has managed all of the massive mobilization that is coming our way,” Pelosi said. “The unity of our messaging and the resources that we’re able to amass are record-breaking. So, I feel very confident about it.”
Meanwhile, Republicans are feeling more and more confident about their chances in the fall despite having the wind in their face, epitomized by Rep. Conor Lamb, D-Pa., winning the Pennsylvania 18th District special election back in March. They also believe the strong economy is boosting their chances.
“It’s getting better,” said Rep. Steve Stivers, R-Ohio, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, of the generic ballot. “The economy is growing. People seeing more opportunities. People seeing more money in their paychecks … People are starting to understand that’s a result of the tax cuts we’ve done, as a result of the regulatory work we’ve done.”
Stivers also pointed to President Trump’s work on the international stage as something that has worked in their favor. While Trump is set to meet with North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un on June 12 in Singapore, the situation remains in flux after North Korea threatened to scrap the meeting due to U.S.-South Korea military drills and reticence about upfront denuclearization.
The Ohio Republican admits that while he has no idea how the North Korea talks will play out, the administration’s strong posture has been helpful, combining with the economic growth to provide a winning message.
“The actions we have taken have had the logical conclusion of making America stronger, more prosperous and more peaceful,” Stivers said. “Peace and prosperity sells pretty well to the American people.”
Republicans say that the nonstop Trump echo chamber has not been disruptive in generic ballot tracking numbers, including the Stormy Daniels saga and the Russia investigation.
“It’s volatile,” said one Republican operative of the political environment. “The Trump/Stormy Daniels cacophony that is always on, it doesn’t affect us at all. What does make a difference is when stories that aren’t Trump-related take over the news cycle.”
The operative pointed to when GOP numbers dropping significantly back in November when Judge Roy Moore was on the tips of everyone’s tongues and also in the aftermath of the Parkland shooting that claimed 17 lives.
Democrats remain wary about the generic ballot numbers overall. Rep. John Yarmuth, D-Ky., said that a more accurate representation is the turnout numbers in primary contests and polling on individual races. However, he doesn’t believe the generic ballot should be overlooked.
“I’d love [the margin] to be 15 [points],” Yarmuth said with a laugh. “But it’s not likely to be that.”
