Analysts: Prices could hit $4 per gallon

Published July 19, 2006 4:00am ET



Some economists are predicting gasoline prices will hit $4 per gallon in the coming months if nervous Wall Street investors keep sending oil price futures up on news of more tension in the Middle East or a hurricane threatening the United States.

Such a price spike could alter the driving habits of motorists in the Baltimore region and hit local governments that likely budgeted fuel purchases for their fleets at less than $4 per gallon, according to local analysts.

Amanda Knittle, a public affairs specialist for AAA Mid-Atlantic in Towson, said AAA discourages people from speculating about gas prices possibly rising in the future. Such talk could cause unwarranted fear that ultimately drives up prices, she said. Even so, gas prices could certainly rise, she said.

“Could [prices] go higher? Certainly,” Knittle said. “We are not at the peak of the summer driving season, which is August, and there is a lot of situations going on in [the] Middle East.”

Higher gas prices don?t seem to be discouraging use which could help drive down prices, Knittle said. On July 12, the U.S. Department of Energy said gasoline consumption for the previous four-week period was up 1.7 percent over the same period a year ago, despite higher prices.

Rebecca Lindland, an auto analyst with Global Insight, a consulting firm based in Boston, said there is a possibility gasoline prices will hit $4 per gallon.

“Somebody on Wall Street has got to be making a lot of money,” Lindland said. “There has always been hurricanes and tensions in the Gulf [of Mexico], but the amount of [price] escalation in response to these issues is becoming ridiculous.”

Wall Street brokers sent the price of barrel of oil to $78.40 per gallon ? an all-time high ? on Friday after tensions between Israel and Lebanon escalated amid worries it could widen to other Middle East countries.

Fred Schram, the central services director of Anne Arundel County, said the county is on track with its gasoline purchases for the year and is not over budget.

“We put in some cost-saving measures earlier in the year like telecommuting, making sure that every trip is worth it, conducting meetings on the phone if they can be conducted on the phone,” Schram said.

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Stephanie Tracy contributed to this article.