In the coming days, five Iranian oil tankers are set to evade U.S. sanctions by showing up in Venezuela’s ports with around $45.5 million worth of gasoline. Amid calls for the U.S. government to stop this, Nicolas Maduro’s defense minister said Wednesday that Venezuelan ships will escort the Iranian tankers. This criminal exchange is just one part of a growing global authoritarian nexus that will continue expanding until the United States government decides to stand up for the Venezuelan people forcefully by blockading Maduro’s autocratic allies.
Tehran is starving for money amid the COVID-19 pandemic, and Caracas is starving for gasoline. Why would Venezuela, the country with the largest crude oil reserves in the world, face a fuel shortage? In a word, socialism.
Fuel shortages aren’t a new phenomenon. Venezuelans have had to line up to purchase most things and frequently suffer blackouts or water service cuts. Maduro and his apologists like to blame U.S. sanctions, but the fact is that other oil-producing nations under much tougher sanctions (including Iran) obviously don’t have this problem. The gas shortage is the result of decades of underinvestment in state-owned oil refineries, using that capital instead to pay for corrupt social programs used to rig elections and launder money.
The gas shortages and incoming tankers are an omen that now is the time to act. The Venezuelan military (the only thing keeping Maduro in power) gets most of the little gasoline produced in the country. Then, they sell it at exorbitant prices to regular Venezuelans.
Maduro is desperate to protect the Venezuelan narcosocialist elite from suffering without fuel to use and sell, so the regime is using whatever is left of Venezuela’s gold reserves to get gasoline from Iran.
Iran, like the rest of the world, is doing whatever it takes to get by during the COVID-19 pandemic and low oil prices. But the economic mismanagement of authoritarian corruption is a plague on Tehran also — high inflation has forced the Iranian regime to replace its currency to simplify accounting.
As the situation on the ground deteriorates, these regimes are taking greater risks to fund their criminal operations. The Ayatollah in Iran needs money to fund terrorist groups such as Hezbollah, and Maduro needs gasoline to keep drug-trafficking networks working and his elites loyal. A gold for gasoline trade satisfies the needs of both to keep their authoritarian regimes alive.
If America lets this happen, it would solidify an already expanding Iranian influence in Venezuela. Maduro recently appointed Tarek El Aissami as oil minister and Alex Saab as chief negotiator with Iran. El Aissami is an indicted narcoterrorist since March, and Saab is wanted for money laundering since last year. Both men have close family ties in the Middle East and are accused of financing terrorism. Add this to the Cuban and Russian presence already there, and Venezuela will become a central hub for global authoritarianism just 1,600 miles from Miami.
Fortunately, the U.S. is in the middle of a large anti-narcotics operation in the Caribbean Sea that doubled the American military presence there. The U.S. should intercept incoming Iranian tankers and forbid Maduro’s regime from getting the gasoline it needs to hold power. This is consistent with U.S. sanctions and the military operation’s purpose to counter drug trafficking.
Maduro’s top military leader, Vladimir Padrino Lopez, claimed Venezuela’s navy will protect the Iranian gasoline tankers once they reach Venezuela’s exclusive economic zone, the sea space 200 nautical miles from shore. But the U.S. military can easily intercept them before they get there, and President Trump has the legal authority to do so since the tankers are violating American sanctions.
Those concerned about Maduro’s military power should remember the recent incident where a Venezuelan naval ship sunk after ramming a cruise liner they tried to intimidate. Tehran will not attempt a major defense of the tankers so far from the Persian Gulf. It may attempt reprisal blockades in the Middle East, but arguably, now is the most opportune time to take that risk given the historically low oil prices.
President Trump made it a cornerstone of his campaign that he would end the Iran nuclear deal because it gave away billions of dollars that the Ayatollah could access to finance terrorism and kill Americans. More recently, the president hasn’t shied away from protecting America, for example, when the military neutralized the well-known terrorist Abu Bakr al Baghdadi. In the same way, the U.S. cannot allow Iran to enrich itself to finance terrorism while propping up yet another criminal regime at America’s doorstep.
Authoritarianism and corruption are often said to spread like a virus, and Venezuela is awfully close to home. America must quarantine the Maduro regime until it self-resolves, or makes way for a legitimately elected leader.
Dr. Clay R. Fuller (@clayrfuller) is an independent expert on democracy, the rule of law, transnational criminal organizations and corruption. Find him at www.clayrfuller.com. Daniel Di Martino (@DanielDiMartino) is a Venezuelan freedom activist and economist based in Lexington, Kentucky.
