Should Tuesday turn out well for Don Blankenship, President Trump’s decision to step into the West Virginia Republican Senate primary could have an interesting effect.
Having deemed Blankenship unelectable against Democratic incumbent Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., Trump on Monday followed his son Don Jr.’s lead and tweeted a request that West Virginia voters support other candidates. In a state where the president’s popularity is high, his endorsement (or anti-endorsement) could carry significant weight with Republican voters.
To the great people of West Virginia we have, together, a really great chance to keep making a big difference. Problem is, Don Blankenship, currently running for Senate, can’t win the General Election in your State…No way! Remember Alabama. Vote Rep. Jenkins or A.G. Morrisey!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 7, 2018
Whether it will actually seal Blankenship’s fate on Tuesday is another question, one that my colleague Philip Wegmann, who’s been covering the race for months, contemplated here.
But in West Virginia, where Trump won by 42 points in 2016, Trump’s word carries weight beyond the confines of his own party. If Blankenship manages to win, Trump’s nonendorsement of the former coal executive will bleed into the general election. Trump basing his anti-Blankenship tweet on the candidate’s electability rather than his dubious character seems like a conscious strategy to leave the door open should his preferred outcome not come to pass.
For Beltway Republicans (this group now includes Trump) a Blankenship win forces another Roy Moore cost-benefit analysis: Is it better to support a bad candidate and maybe win the seat, or refuse to back someone unfit for office, ceding the seat to the Democrats?
Either way, if Blankenship prevails in the primary, you can bet Trump’s nonendorsement will follow him until November, as both candidates will do their best to win favor with a Trump-friendly electorate. Trump, of course, will have to make a decision about whether to weigh in again at all. But until he does, his tweet on Monday could be a gift for Manchin.
