Donald Trump has already left his mark on the 2016 presidential primaries even before the first vote has been cast. But will it be good for Republican senators up for re-election in competitive states?
Freshman Sen. Pat Toomey, R-Penn., is already one of the most endangered GOP incumbents running next year. His race — possibly a rematch against 2010 Democratic opponent Joe Sestak or else a contest with Kate McGinty, former chief of staff to the state’s governor — will help determine whether Republicans hold the Senate. Many local Republicans think Trump makes Toomey’s job harder.
“I think that the best chance that Toomey has to carry the state is with either [Marco] Rubio, [Chris] Christie or [Jeb] Bush as head of ticket,” said Bob Asher, a Republican national committeeman from Montgomery County. “I think [Toomey] would be seriously hindered if either Trump or [Ted] Cruz were at the top of the ticket.”
Asher, a businessman and long-time player in Pennsylvania politics currently serving as Rubio’s state finance chairman, also argued that any chance for the GOP to play in the crucial suburban Philadelphia counties could be squandered with the wrong presidential candidate at the top of the ticket.
“Either Trump or Cruz would cost us any chance we have of performing well in the four suburban Philadelphia counties,” said Asher, referring to Montgomery, Chester, Delaware and Bucks.
In 2012, President Obama pulled off a resounding victory over Mitt Romney in these “collar” counties, winning them by nearly 120,000 votes in his 52-46 percent Keystone State triumph.
“Pat Toomey has a tough re-election fight in 2016. He will win that fight, but his path is made much more difficult if Donald Trump is on that ticket,” said Charlie Gerow, a GOP strategist who runs a Harrisburg-based communications firm. “It’s as simple as that.”
These comments come on the heels of Trump’s headlining of a Republican Party of Pennsylvania fundraiser in New York during the annual PA Society weekend on Dec. 11, which raised money for the party’s 2016 election efforts, which includes Toomey’s race. Toomey skipped the Trump-headlined event, with his team citing a scheduling conflict.
The event was also bypassed by most in the GOP congressional delegation, including Reps. Charlie Dent and Pat Meehan, who wanted little to do with Trump in the days after he announced his plan to ban Muslims from entering the United States.
“There’s a lot of concern that (with) Donald Trump and one or two other candidates, that there will be a down-ballot drag. It’s certainly going to affect Senate candidates more than anyone else,” Dent told the Philadelphia Inquirer, adding that he was “a little surprised” the PA GOP invited Trump at all. “All I can say is, I have not endorsed him, and I’m not likely to.”
The Pennsylvania GOP and chairman Rob Gleason declined to comment on the Trump effect on Toomey.
“[A Trump nomination] certainly comes with a ton of uncertainty for down-ballot races, including the Senate race,” said Chris Borick, a political scientist at Muhlenberg College. “If you look traditionally at the makeup of the electorate in PA in a presidential year vs. a non-presidential year … it’s simply not as conducive for Republicans.”
“The fear for Republicans, including individuals Sen. Toomey, is that a Donald Trump nomination … could be a lot of danger in the sense that it might exacerbate some of those already difficult electorate demographics that Republicans face in Pennsylvania in presidential elections,” Borick said. “That’s a legitimate fear.”
While Toomey could join fellow GOP incumbents on the political chopping block come November, some believe that Trump could be beneficial to the Lehigh Valley-based senator.
“I think Toomey could be helped [by Trump],” said Jeffrey Lord, a CNN contributor and Trump supporter who lives outside of Harrisburg. Lord compared a Trump-led 2016 voter drive to that of Ronald Reagan in 1980, which created the Reagan Democrat voting bloc.
“I think Donald Trump has that capacity to do the same thing,” Lord said. “[T]he Trump phenomenon has that potential … This idea that he’s just going to be a disaster, I just don’t think that’s true.”
Despite Trump’s effect one way or another, some Republicans in the state are placing their trust in the hands of Pennsylvania voters, who have a long track record of ticket-splitting. It’s a pattern familiar to Toomey’s team.
“The last three times a Republican senator ran for re-election in a presidential year in Pennsylvania, the Republican senator won despite Democrats winning the presidential races,” Toomey spokesman Ted Kwong told the Examiner, pointing to wins by Rick Santorum (2000) and Arlen Specter (1992, 2004). “Pennsylvania voters judge each candidate individually, and we’re confident they support Pat Toomey’s thoughtful and constructive approach to making our communities safer and our economy stronger.”
In fact, Toomey himself won re-election to his House seat by six points while Al Gore carried the district by two points over George W. Bush.
“People will be following the Senate race in Pennsylvania like they always do — with a great deal of attention. Therefore, often times Pennsylvanians are known for splitting their vote,” said John Brabender, a GOP consultant from Pittsburgh. “People do look at races very independently.”
But Brabender, who led Rick Santorum’s political races from 1990 until 2012, also argued that if Trump does win the GOP nod, it could be beneficial to Toomey and other down-ballot candidates because he’d ultimately be selling a batch of goods that GOP voters are buying.
“Look, Donald Trump is where he is because a lot of people like what they’re hearing,” Brabender said. “It’s not like he’s somehow won the lottery and became the top of the ticket. He’s only going to get there if he has substantial support.”
Ultimately, the responsibility will come down to Toomey to win his own re-election, says GOP national committeewoman Christine Toretti. She said she trusts Toomey to come out on top once again.
“Pat Toomey has always run his own race,” Toretti told the Examiner via email. “He will make every effort to succeed no matter who the presidential candidate might be.”
