The number of deaths in the United States from COVID-19 may be over 900,000, much higher than the official count, according to a new study.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington estimated that there were 905,298 deaths from COVID-19 thus far in the U.S. That is 56% higher than the estimate of just over 580,000.
The IHME calculated excess mortality in non-pandemic years and then compared that against excess mortality from March 2020 through early May 2021. It also adjusted the numbers for other factors, such as higher-than-expected opioid deaths during the pandemic and lower-than-expected flu deaths.
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Ultimately, the IHME found that the excess deaths not caused by COVID-19 were canceled out by lower-than-expected deaths elsewhere.
“When you put all that together, we conclude that the best way, the closest estimate, for the true COVID death is still excess mortality because some of those things are on the positive side, other factors are on the negative side,” Dr. Christopher Murray, director of the IHME, told National Public Radio.
Indeed, the researchers concluded that most excess deaths from 2020 to 2021 were COVID-19 deaths that had been misclassified as something else.
Some of the differences between the IHME estimates and official numbers were dramatic. The IHME estimated that Japan had 108,320 COVID-19 deaths, more than 10 times the official number of 10,390. Worldwide, the official death count is about 3.2 million, while the IHME model shows it to be 6.9 million.
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“The analysis just shows how challenging it has been during the pandemic to accurately track the deaths — and actually, transmission — of COVID. And by focusing in on the total COVID death rate, I think we bring to light just how much greater the impact of COVID has been already and may be in the future,” said Murray.
