U.S. intelligence officers in Iraq believe 2007 will be looked on someday as “the beginning of the defeat of al Qaeda,” an adviser to the command in Baghdad said Monday.
Retired Army Gen. John Keane offered the assessment after being briefed by a senior intelligence official who is an expert on the insurgency. The upbeat view marked a shift from 2006 intelligence reports that al Qaeda in Iraq was growing stronger.
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Keane also said he expects a U.S. troop drawdown next spring, when forces should be able to turn over security in some Baghdad neighborhoods to Iraqis.
Keane, who has made two fact-finding trips to Iraq since a surge of U.S. troops began in February, said two new developments convinced intelligence officials that al Qaeda was on its way to defeat.
First, Sunni sheiks are breaking alliances with al Qaeda and joining the coalition. “They are fed up with this barbarism and four years of war,” Keane said during a talk at the American Enterprise Institute.
Second, the U.S. counteroffensive of more than 155,000 troops is simultaneously attacking al Qaeda safe havens around the country — a tactic not used before.
Keane told The Examiner not to expect a “pass-fail” grade from Army Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, when he reports to Congress on the offensive in September.
“I think this is part of a journey,” Keane said. “He’ll give a progress report on this journey.”
Democratic leaders have called the surge a failure. Some key Republican senators also have said it is time to change strategy and begin removing troops.
If U.S. troops are pulled out, Keane said, “it demonstrates a lack of character by the United States.”
Keane, a former vice chief of the Army who urged the White House to send more forces to Iraq, said al Qaeda has failed in recent weeks to stir up Shiite/Sunni violence as it successfully did in 2006 with the bombing of a revered Shiite mosque.
Keane said Shiite militias now know they have to go into American-controlled neighborhoods if they wish to seek revenge against Sunnis. “Day in day out, they know Americans are giving their lives to protect Shia,” he added.
James Miller, a Pentagon official in the Clinton administration, spoke at the American Enterprise Institute in opposition to continuing the surge and in favor of a phased withdrawal.
“The bottom line is the surge to date has not allowed the Iraqis to settle their political differences,” he said.
