The first advertisement of the 2020 presidential campaign to really get under President Trump’s skin was the substantially coronavirus-themed “Mourning in America” spot taken out by the Never Trump Lincoln Project.
“A group of RINO Republicans who failed badly 12 years ago, then again 8 years ago, and then got BADLY beaten by me, a political first timer, 4 years ago, have copied (no imagination) the concept of an ad from Ronald Reagan, ‘Morning in America,’” Trump tweeted indignantly. His reelection campaign later sent out a statement slamming the “Lincoln Project losers” as “scam artists” and “political bottom feeders” who are duping “Democrat donors” out of their money. (In fact, the group reported raising $1 million in a single day after the president’s tweet.)
But the Never Trumpers aren’t the only ones borrowing from Reagan’s 1984 reelection campaign. While better known for “American Carnage” and other pessimistic imagery, Trump has emphasized optimism in the face of a global pandemic that has in turn caused the worst unemployment rates since the Great Depression. “We built the greatest economy anywhere in the world,” he said. “And we’re going to build it again.”
Reagan had already slain stagflation and the 1982 recession, which saw a post-Depression unemployment high of 10.8%, by the time he was up for reelection: The economy was growing at a 6.8% clip in 1984. The coronavirus has put Trump’s economic boom in the rearview mirror, leading to a renewal of his “Make America Great Again” slogan.
Consider Trump’s own ad, a recitation of federal government success stories in virus management, many of them touted on camera by Democratic governors. Trump is shown vowing to continue to fight for the people: “With the grace of God, we will win this war, and we will win this war quickly — and we will make America great again.” Brad Parscale, Trump’s campaign manager, put it this way in an accompanying statement: “Under President Trump’s leadership, the United States is writing the greatest comeback story in history.”
This modified campaign strategy has coincided with the White House shifting gears away from daily, sometimes lengthy coronavirus briefings to a renewed focus on reopening the economy. Trump has started traveling to promote the idea of people going back to work.
“The president’s performance responding to the crisis now has Republicans worried that his sinking poll numbers are infecting Republicans up and down the ticket and the likelihood of holding the Senate,” said a GOP strategist who is frequently critical of Trump. “They also realize that his usual bag of rhetorical tricks and magic thinking are not working. He can’t simply change the subject.”
But Trump’s allies believe he can change the country’s economic conditions. “Ten million people will go back to work” just as a result of the phased reopenings, said Grover Norquist of Americans for Tax Reform. “Our plan is to make the economy grow really fast.”
“There are so many unknowns right now,” said Rory Cooper, a strategist and former adviser to Eric Cantor. “We could be in a second wave of the pandemic in November. Even if we are recovered from a health perspective and we have a stronger Q3, people will still be hurting, and both candidates will need to have a message that looks ahead, not backward.” Trump won’t have much time between the release of preliminary numbers for third quarter gross domestic product, which he predicts will reflect a “transition” back to a stronger economy, and Election Day.
Trump is betting that voters will share his optimism. “I’m a cheerleader for this country,” he protested when reporters observed that his rosy predictions about the coronavirus didn’t pan out. Then, he was chided for being too slow to respond. Now, experts and political rivals worry he is moving too fast to reopen the economy. When son-in-law and senior adviser Jared Kushner called the coronavirus “a great success story” and suggested that “the country’s [going to be] really rocking again” by July, he was blasted as being out of touch.
This is the case Trump himself will be making, however. “The U.S. is providing leadership during this crisis, not only leading the world in testing, but also taking steps to help allies around the world,” press secretary Kayleigh McEnany told reporters, adding reassuringly that “President Trump has consistently sided with the experts and has always prioritized the health and safety of the American people.”
The administration is nevertheless clearly ready to move from mourning to morning, especially including the president.
