The super PAC affiliated with Senate Majority Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., is warning donors that political conditions for the Republican Party have not been this perilous since 2006.
That year, the Democrats won in a rout both houses of Congress in a midterm backlash against President George W. Bush. The Senate Leadership Fund, essentially McConnell’s super PAC and run by his loyalists, said in a memo to contributors that little has changed to alter its earlier assessment that Republicans this year face similar challenges generated by dissatisfaction with President Trump.
“Late last year we wrote: ‘Republicans can expect to face the toughest political conditions next year since 2006, when the party lost control of both the House and the Senate.’ Despite a small uptick in President Trump’s approval rating and a tightening of the congressional generic ballot in the GOP’s favor, we see no reason to adjust that forecast,” SLF executive director Steven Law wrote in an 11-page document titled: “Senate Investment Forecast Spring 2018 Update.”
Law continues: “There is always a great deal of fascination with special election results and minor fluctuations in generic ballots and presidential approval ratings. But the real trends that will shape this election cycle are: sky-high Democratic enthusiasm driving record turnout; hardening voter attitudes toward the President (for and against); and weakened GOP support among suburban voters, especially higher-income, college educated women.”
Senate Republicans are better positioned than their House colleagues to hold their slim, 51-49 majority because of a favorable map of seats up for election. Democratic incumbents are defending seats in 10 states won by Trump in 2016; and the president remains popular in many of them despite poor national job approval ratings that are jeopardizing the GOP’s hold on its 23-seat House majority.
But McConnell has warned Republicans not to rely on the map to protect the majority, recalling how similar advantages for the Democrats in the 2010 cycle transformed into a loss of seven seats in a rejection of President Barack Obama. And some GOP insiders worry that some candidates will fall short, hampering the party’s ability to maximize gains amid strong headwinds.
The Senate Leadership Fund argues that Republicans are still positioned to pad its majority in the Senate if enough GOP candidates are adequately resourced (a pitch not atypical for an organization that exists to advertise in big-money contests). The group also has concerns, as laid out in its spring prospectus. Law said SLF’s view of the field hasn’t changed too much since the document was circulated among donors.
“Obviously, that is a snapshot in time and both the political terrain and our plans have already shifted somewhat since then. But the broader observations about the political climate and our opportunities in the Senate remain essentially the same,” he said.
McConnell is an electoral tactician who plays a strong role in directing Senate GOP political strategy, in concert with the party’s official Senate campaign arm, the National Republican Senatorial Committee, chaired this cycle by Sen. Cory Gardner of Colorado. As such, the rhetoric and approach taken by the Senate Leadership Fund is considered a good approximation of McConnell’s position and preferences.
To wit, here are some interesting points and observations on the upcoming elections highlighted by Law in the SLF memo that could indicate where the super PAC plans to be active this cycle, and under what conditions:
- “Our last update spotlighted six Senate races that would be bellwethers for Republican chances this fall. In five of the six states—Arizona, Florida, Nevada, North Dakota and Tennessee—our prospects for success have increased.”
- “We are cautiously optimistic about holding our defensive positions in Arizona, Nevada and Tennessee.”
- “On the offensive side, we are already active in all of our top-tier Senate pick-up races: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota and West Virginia.”
- “We are also paying attention to the Republican primary in Mississippi, where State Sen. Chris McDaniel is seeking revenge for his failed challenge to Sen. Thad Cochran in 2014. McDaniel, aptly dubbed the “Mississippi Roy Moore,” could cost Republicans another Senate seat in a deep-red state if he becomes the nominee in either race.”
- “Finally, we are concerned about the growing financial disparity between Democratic incumbents and their Republican challengers. While it is normal for incumbents of both parties to start with large financial leads over their opponents, successful challengers usually chip away at that gap by this time in the cycle.”
