Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump’s lead in the New Hampshire primary is upending the conventional wisdom that winning a political race requires expensive ad buys.
The billionaire businessman’s campaign is being outspent by his top rivals at rates ranging from 3-1 to 10-1 in the Granite State, yet has led in every major state poll conducted since June, most by double digits.
Trump has spent just $424,000 on buys on WMUR, the state’s largest TV station, according to a report by the Boston Globe. He is being outspent by four other GOP rivals, led by Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., who has bought $4 million worth of ads. Others spending more than Trump include former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at $3.5 million, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at $2 million and Ohio Gov. John Kasich at $1.3 million.
“It just reinforces that money can get you a hearing, but it cannot force voters to buy a candidate or message that they do not want,” said Bradley Smith, former chairman of the Federal Election Commission under President George W. Bush.
Trump is even being outspent in New Hampshire by Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., an avowed socialist, who has put an estimated $2 million into ads into his race against rival Hillary Clinton. Sanders is doing this despite being well known in New Hampshire, having had a long political career in neighboring Vermont. Clinton is also outspending Trump, having put $1.3 million into ad buys.
The differences highlight the extent to which Trump has been able to use “free media” — regular news coverage by networks — as a vehicle to publicize his campaign. A January report by the conservative Media Research Center found that he got four to five times more coverage than his GOP rivals. The other candidates have been forced to subsidize their messages. It also refutes the conventional wisdom that campaigns are won by the candidates who raise the most amount of money.
“In Trump’s performance, you see how free media is much more valuable,” Smith said. “In fact, if it weren’t for private, paid media you could argue that Trump would already have this wrapped up. The only way the other guys can get [air] time is by buying time.”
Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, has spent less than Trump in New Hampshire, an estimated $246,000, but has nevertheless consistently polled in the double digits in the state, with a few recent ones showing him as Trump’s closest rival.
Trump’s modest spending is ironic given that his personal wealth far exceeds that of his rivals. Since federal election rules allow candidates to spend unlimited amounts of their own money to fund their campaigns, a billionaire such as Trump would theoretically have a large advantage since he could vastly outspend his opponents. Yet he has consistently led in the GOP race without ever resorting to that.
Others have not been able to translate prodigious fundraising into electoral momentum. Bush has raised $155 million overall for his White House bid, the most of any Republican candidate, yet is currently in the low single digits in the polls. Trump has raised just $19 million.
