China faces a growing crisis amid the confrontation between Myanmar’s military junta and its people.
A close ally of the junta and major investor in Myanmar’s economy, the Chinese Communist Party had hoped that the street protests would have ended by now. Those protests were sparked by the junta’s Feb. 1 seizure of power from a provisional civilian government. Attempting to crush the protests with overwhelming force, the junta killed dozens of civilians over the weekend. China has also earned protesters’ ire, with a number of Chinese-owned garment factories being firebombed. Beijing is increasingly worried.
At the Foreign Affairs Ministry in Beijing on Monday, spokesman Zhao Lijian said that China calls on “the people of Myanmar to voice their appeal in a lawful manner, refuse to be instigated or taken advantage of, and avoid undermining China-Myanmar friendship and cooperation.”
This is typically unhelpful rhetoric from Beijing. The arrogant disdain and dictatorial tone adopted toward the protesters is far more likely to inflame anti-China sentiments than it is to cool them. But China’s problem goes beyond rhetoric. As protesters consider their next steps, they’ll likely view further attacks on Chinese interests as a useful tactic. They’ll observe that these attacks haven’t simply generated significant international attention but that they have also undermined the junta, which needs the factories for its economy and revenue generation. By challenging China’s relationship with the junta in such a visceral manner, the protest movement is reclaiming the nationalist narrative from the military.
China is thus now stuck between the rock of its support for the junta and a hard place in the form of its stance toward the protesters.
When the protests first erupted, Beijing was quick to reject the grievances of those taking to the streets. Instead, spokespeople such as Zhao called for calm and reinforced the idea that the junta’s slaughter was a wholly internal matter. This disinterest in anything but China’s own economic stability stood in stark contrast with the international community. While Beijing is now attempting to show some sympathy for the protesters, it’s likely too little, too late. The people appear to see Beijing as an ally of those who are oppressing them.
The broader issue China faces, here, is how these protests cut deeply at the Communist Party’s governance model. The fundamental basis of Xi Jinping’s regime is the idea that China’s people will tolerate authoritarianism as long as they benefit from expanding employment and social stability. Myanmar’s chaos undercuts that narrative and will, even if only peripherally, fuel Xi’s paranoia about the stability of his long-term rule.
