A CONSTANT WORRY about American forces overseas is that we will overstay our welcome, that the host country will tire of us, that eventually, with enough protests and demonstrations and effigies burned, we will be forced out. It’s happened plenty of times in countries from Europe to the Middle East to Asia. And the Philippines is no exception.
In 1991, the Philippine government, with popular support, chose not to renew our leases on both Subic Bay and Clark Air Field (the latter was also a victim of the eruption of Mount Pinatubo). In recent months, as U.S. Special Forces started pouring in to continue the war on terror, throngs of protesters in the southern islands of the Philippines demanded that the Americans leave at once. And matters were not helped when, two weeks ago, a grenade exploded in a movie theater just four miles away from where U.S. troops are being quartered on the island of Mindanao. Meanwhile, the administration of Philippine president Gloria Macapagal Arroyo has been fearful that too much support for U.S. assistance might lead to a coup by nationalists.
But appearances can be deceiving. For some time now, sources in the Philippines have been talking about a growing silent majority that staunchly supports the United States. There’s word of a petition circulating that would allow the Americans to permanently return to the bases at Clark and Subic–President Arroyo has already reopened the bases for the duration of the Americans’ stay. And in the February 25 New York Times, Raymond Bonner reports on a rally in Zamboanga, the largest city in Mindanao, in support of America. Roughly 2,000 Filipinos, “grandmothers, students, government employees, the unemployed . . . sang and prayed, waving Philippine and American flags and placards.” Add to this a recent poll showing 83 percent of Filipinos strongly support the U.S. involvement in their country, and it becomes evident that, for the most part, the Philippines can be counted on in this second phase of the war on terrorism.
Which is a good thing. A senior official at the State Department tells me that with al Qaeda on the run in Afghanistan, the terrorists will be looking for new hiding places. “It is believed that much of the al Qaeda network will move their operations to the Pacific, to Indonesia and the Philippines.” It certainly makes sense. Terrorists like 1993 World Trade Center bomber Ramzi Yousef have found Southeast Asia an ideal place to lie low. And other terrorist cells in the region such as Jamaah Islamiyah are only now being discovered. It is easy to slip in and out of the country and avoid rigid border patrols–the Philippines alone consists of more than 7,000 islands.
But the focus of the U.S. operation in the southern Philippines will remain the same: aiding the Filipinos in their war against Abu Sayyaf, a Muslim separatist group with ties to al Qaeda who hold hostage two Americans, Martin and Gracia Burnham of Kansas. Last June, Abu Sayyaf beheaded another American, Guillermo Sobero. The American presence is expected to grow to about 660 persons in the six months of their stay. Already there are about 160 members of the Special Forces on the ground training the Filipinos–the Philippine constitution forbids actual engagement by foreign soldiers on their soil (unless they are fired upon, of course). This is a point Arroyo has stressed repeatedly, in part to calm nerves in Manila. But as Bonner mentions in the Times, there is a growing desire for actual American participation in the struggle against Abu Sayyaf.
Indeed, many Filipinos are hoping the United States can help rid them of these terrorists. And Washington intends to do just that–as well as rescue the hostages. But while many Filipinos might want us to stay, the White House should be wary of the war on terrorism expanding to include every single separatist faction out there–and there are many.
Still, the major problem for the Philippines is the Muslim separatist movement, and the Abu Sayyaf in particular. The biggest problem for the United States is hunting down al Qaeda in the region. Filipinos want us there. The Bush administration wants to be there. It’s a shame such arrangements don’t exist with some of our other allies.
Victorino Matus is an assistant managing editor at The Weekly Standard.
