The United States should take some steps to help Iran address its catastrophic coronavirus situation. But that should not include general sanctions relief.
Sanctions relief would undermine critical American security interests and empower elements of the Iranian regime that have nothing to do with public health and everything to do with regional violence and killing Americans.
I note this in light of the Guardian’s report of former world leaders requesting that the Trump administration adopt four changes to its sanctions on Iran: expand sanctions waivers for medical devices, bolster the Treasury Department’s sanctions waiver request team, send letters to European banks and companies pledging that they will not face sanctions if they provide medical goods to Iran, and avoid vetoing Iran’s request to the International Monetary Fund to grant a $5 billion loan.
The first two suggestions are perfectly sensible. But it would be a serious mistake for Trump to relax controls on foreign capital flows or grant general commercial waivers. The money that would flow as a consequence would only find its way into the hands of Iranian hardliners.
We know this will happen because we have already seen it happen. The 2015 sanctions relief was supposed to flow to the benefit of the Iranian people, but it was instead diverted into the hands of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The cash infusion allowed the Guard to expand its operational footprint across the Middle East, undermining U.S. interests in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen, in particular.
The same thing will happen now if Trump repeats Obama’s mistake.
Even as Iranians suffer, the Guard remains dedicated to expanding its campaign against U.S. interests. This is clearest in Iraq, where the Guard’s proxies operating under its orders are actively attacking American military bases and killing American personnel.
At heart, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his minions view the coronavirus as a threat to their theocratic authority. They don’t care at all about public health — not six months ago, they were shooting people in the streets to break up public protests against their regime.
Any new resources they acquire will be used to suppress opposition to their authority and undermine American interests.
One more thing: European and other foreign companies have ulterior motives in supporting Iran, such as reaching new deals with the Guard’s vast economic apparatus. They would like nothing more than to skirt sanctions under cover of humanitarian action. Trump must not give them such cover, as it would help the Guard come out of this stronger than when it entered the crisis.
